NY Times: Horse Racing & more Louisville C-J Pace & Cap Forum Dan Illman’s Blog Steve Crist’s Blog Peter Fornatale’s Blog DRF Players’ PodcastAt 9 am today, jockey Garrett Gomez announced on TVG that he will ride Pioneerof the Nile in the May 2 Kentucky Derby.
Gomez rode Pioneerof the Nile to four straight graded stakes victories and was also the regular rider for Florida Derby runner up Dunkirk.
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races
Maiden claiming $25,000, 6 furlongs, 4 yo’s and up f & m
Possible overlays Morning line
#3 Chic Chick 3/1
#7 Hannah’s Moment 5/1
Darrell Vienna brings #3 Chic Chick back from a nine-month layoff and takes over the training from Lisa Lewis. Chic Chick showed enough ability when racing against maiden special weights last year to win a race in this class.
The speed of the race looks like #7 Hannah’s Moment who will be ridden by Rafael Bejarano. This mare had the lead at the half mile pole against $40,000 maiden claimers in two if her last four races.
But when she last ran on March 21 against this class, she never made the lead while running her poorest lifetime Beyer Speed Figure in six tries. However, she still finished second that day as the post time favorite.
I will bet $500 to win on #3 Chic Chick at 2/1 to 7/2, but just $200 at 4/1 or higher. Also, I will take $200 to win on #7 Hannah’s Moment at 3/1 or higher.
Note: This race closes the Santa Anita winter meet. Hollywood Park opens Wednesday.
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races
Maiden claiming $32,000, 5-1/2 furlongs, 3 yo fillies
Possible overlays Morning line
#2 Touch Me Babe 10/1
#5 To Hot for You 5/2
#10 Humane 8/1
Coming off of an eight-month layoff, #5 To Hot for You is dropping in class and is saddled by Mike Mitchell, who wins at 36 percent with maiden claimers.
Too Hot for You ran competitively when facing maiden special weight company at Del Mar in August and is making only her third lifetime start. This stable’s live horses are bet down, so I will like this filly more if her post time odds are low.
Breaking on the far outside, #10 Humane overcame a huge amount of trouble in her Feb. 5 debut to lead by two lengths in the stretch, but she could not hold on. On that day, she broke seven lengths behind the field then accelerated four-wide on the turn to the lead. It was an impressive move that race caller Trevor Denman recognized when describing the action.
I estimate that she lost 10 lengths so I adjusted the 59 Beyer Speed Figure she earned that day to an 87. But today she is breaking from a wide post again at 5-1/2 furlongs, so she’s likely to be a bit wide again.
Humane’s trainer Derek Meredith is also doing something else worth noting. He named low-profile jockey Agapito Delgadillo to ride, so his name is printed in the Daily Racing Form. However, he switched to Michael Baze and that’s who will be on board.
Could Meredith have named Delgadillo while fully intending to make the late switch in an attempt to pump up the wagering odds? Would a horse trainer participate in such chicanery? It’s quite possible, because Delgadillo is still scheduled to ride #3 Likely a Star in the fourth, so the jockey obviously did not get sick.
Finally, Gerson Racing owns #2 Touch Me Babe and their first-time starters win more than their share of races.
At the betting window, I will put $400 on #5 To Hot for You at 7/5 to 5/2, but just $150 at 3/1 or more. Also, I want $250 to win on #10 Humane at 5/2 to 9/1, but only $150 at 10/1 or more. And finally, $100 on #2 Touch Me Babe at 10/1 to 19/1.
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races
Maiden Claiming $32,000, 5-1/2 furlongs, 3 yo fillies
Possible overlays Morning line
#3 Tripped Fuse 5/2
#7 Martini Mixer 8/1
#9 Misstrailcityzone 12/1
#10 Greek Advantage 15/1
Two experienced horses figure to get all of the betting action. Both #3 Tripped Fuse and #6 Michelle Marie certainly have the ability to win this race, but neither will probably be more than 3-to-1.
One intriguing filly is first-time starter #7 Martini Mixer. Trained by Brian Koriner, Martini Mixer is showing several good workouts and she fits the profile of a winning debut horse. Also, of the last 123 horses jockey Joe Talamo rode for Koriner, 28 of them won with the average payoff being $11.
That means if you bet them all, you would have made $1.25 for every $1 bet.
The best early speed in this race might belong to #9 Misstrailcityzone, who led until midstretch on April 4 at 108-to-1. As long as this filly stays healthy and runs in races at 6 furlongs or less, she’ll break her maiden somewhere. But she may need a different circuit and softer competition.
However, she’s also improving and when Misstrailcityzone quit badly last time it was at 6-1/2 furlongs where speed isn’t as important. Who knows, she just may keep on going today and pay $25.
Finally, #10 Greek Advantage is debuting for trainer Thomas Bell II and she’d also be a good bet if the price is right.
I will bet $400 to win on #7 Martini Mixer at 5/2 to 14/1, but just $100 if she’s 15/1 to 19/1. Also, I’ll take $100 to win on #9 Misstrailcityzone at 5/1 to 19/1, and reduce the wager to $25 at odds at 20/1 or more.
Finally, I’ll put $200 to win on #10 Greek Advantage at 10/1 to 19/1.
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races
Maiden claiming $32,000, 7 furlongs, 3-year-olds
Possible overlays Morning line
#3 Self Defense 7/2
#5 Victory Knock 2/1
On March 29, #5 Victory Knock made his debut at 5/2 in a field of five going 6 furlongs. Jockey Alex Solis did not ask this horse for speed from the gate, so he ended up in the middle of the pack on the backstretch. On the turn to the top of the lane, Solis pushed Victory Knock, but the jockey didn’t seem to be giving him a vigorous ride in deep stretch.
It seems that Victory Knock had a practice race, however he still ran a 68 Beyer Speed Figure. Today, he should run better with the racing experience and the added distance.
In his second lifetime start on April 9, #3 Self Defense also sat in the middle of the field, as jockey Aaron Gryder was not urging him much early. However, Self Defense rallied strongly in the stretch when Gryder pushed him along and went to the whip.
I believe that #5 Victory Knock has a 50 percent chance to win this race, so I will bet $400 to win on him at 7/5 to 9/5, $450 on him at 2/1 to 5/2. But only $200 at 3/1 or better.
Also, I will bet a $50 straight exacta using #3 Self Defense over #5 Victory Knock.
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races
Maiden Special Weight, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3-year-olds
Possible overlays Morning line
#2 Unionize 8/5
#6 Speight the Halo 4/1
Trained by Clifford Sise, #2 Unionize was 15-to-1 when he ran a 90 Beyer Speed Figure in his debut, which is good enough to win at this class. But Unionize unfortunately ran into Point Encounter when they raced on opening day at Santa Anita.
Unionize came back on March 7 to practically duplicate his first race, however he could only muster a second-place finish to Leavenworth, another super-charged maiden first time starter. Since the median Beyer Speed Figure for this class is a mere 85, Unionize obviously has the talent to win, but he’s likely to be even money.
One horse who may upset him is #6 Speight the Halo, who is coming off a seven month layoff. In his first race on June 29, Speight the Halo looked to be long gone in deep stretch, but S.S. Stone came like an express train late to roll by.
Speight the Halo was more than three lengths clear of third-place finisher Street Hero that day. He’s been training well and maybe Eoin Harty has him at his best.
I will bet $200 to win on #6 Speight the Halo at 2/1 or more and a $100 exacta box #2 Unionize with #6 Speight the Halo.
Will Garrett Gomez ride Pioneerof the Nile for Baffert in the Ky Derby?
Dunkirk or Pioneerof the Nile?
Hmm.
Pioneerof the Nile or Dunkirk?
Those are the thoughts that will be going through jockey Garrett Gomez’ head this weekend as he decides which horse to ride in the May 2 Kentucky Derby.
Gomez said on his NTRA blog Thursday that the decision is a tough one because he has good relationships with both trainers — Todd Pletcher and Bob Baffert — and both owners. But on Sunday, he will pick either Dunkirk or Pioneerof the Nile.
And after reading the complete NTRA blog entry, Gomez seems to be leaning toward Dunkirk.
Gomez’ blog delves into the pros and cons of each horse. In the Florida Derby, Gomez was impressed by the strong move Dunkirk made on Quality Road. He also noted that Dunkirk galloped out ahead of Quality Road after the wire.
“I don’t think a mile and a quarter will be a problem with him at all,” Gomez wrote.
He describes Pioneerof the Nile as more of a head case, who doesn’t run hard when he makes the lead.
“He hasn’t really done anything wrong when I’ve ridden him in the afternoons, but in a couple of races on him I’ve been a little uncomfortable because the simple fact is, I know there’s more to him,” Gomez wrote. “When he makes the lead, he has pulled up a little bit in a few of his races, and it feels like you’ve got a target on your back and somebody’s gonna come and nail you.”
Bob Baffert will try to secure services of Garrett Gomez on Friday
Over the years, Bob Baffert has trained horses for some of the richest, most successful owners in the business.
When it comes to training their stock, these owners don’t just pick names out of a hat. Many of them got rich by operating large companies and by seeking out and hiring the very best people.
I’m sure over the years, Baffert has learned to use his confident, yet reasonable demeanor to persuade owners that he is a better choice to run their stables than, say, Bobby Frankel, Richard Mandella or John Sadler.
And it’s those very sales skills that Baffert needs to draw on Friday in Lexington when he tries to convince Garrett Gomez’ camp to choose to ride Pioneerof the Nile over Dunkirk in the Kentucky Derby. On Monday, Gomez’ agent Ron Anderson and Baffert exchanged several telephone calls and finally agreed to meet in Lexington Friday to discuss whether Gomez will ride Pioneerof the Nile or not, according to the Daily Racing Form.
Baffert was going to Kentucky anyway to saddle Mythical Power in Saturday’s Lexington Stakes at Keeneland. Over the years, Baffert and Anderson have done lots of business together, as Anderson’s former client Gary Stevens rode Silver Charm and many other Baffert notables.
But the Gomez-Anderson team also has a great relationship with Dunkirk’s trainer Todd Pletcher, who they have ridden many stakes winners for, too. Furthermore, Dunkirk ran a 108 Beyer Speed Figure in the Florida Derby on a dirt track, while Pioneerof the Nile has never cracked 100 in eight tries — all on either synthetic surfaces or grass.
There’s a lot at stake on this decision for Baffert because Gomez knows Pioneerof the Nile, having ridden him to four straight graded stakes victories. Baffert likes veteran jockeys on his best horses and right now nobody is better than Gomez, who won the Eclipse Award as the nation’s top jockey for the last two years.
Everyone knows that it’s late in the game, so many of the leading riders are committed to Derby horses. If Anderson and Gomez snub Baffert and choose Dunkirk, then who will Baffert turn to?
John Velasquez is riding Quality Road, Rafael Bejarano is on Papa Clem and Joel Rosario will be aboard Chocolate Candy. Maybe Edgar Prado will be the choice, as his mount Imperial Council will not run in the Derby. Or Baffert may pick David Flores, who he’s had luck with in the past.
Baffert will probably try to sell Anderson on his great record in the 3-year-old Classic races over the last decade or so. And it’s true, Baffert’s been the best: Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Congaree, Point Given and War Emblem, for the most part, all ran their eyeballs out in the Triple Crown series.
The Gomez camp will have to make their decision based not only on the Derby, but the Preakness and Belmont as well. Anderson and Gomez will look silly if they chose wrong and watch either Dunkirk or Pioneerof the Nile win while they’re riding the other horse.
Baffert, a finalist for racing’s Hall of Fame, is no doubt a great trainer.
But on Friday he also needs to be a great pitchman.
The Kentucky Derby is much more than just a horse race.
During the week leading up to the greatest two minutes in sports, the city of Louisville throws the Kentucky Derby Festival, which includes a hot air balloon race, a steam boat challenge, a marathon, fireworks and lots and lots of parties.
Every year these events bring out sports and entertainment celebrites to rock the Derby. Yes, the pretty people will soon descend on Louisville to give us their opinions on nothing we truly care about. But they are sure to look good doing it.
And for at least one day of the year — Derby Day at Churchill Downs — it will be difficult finding all those guys named Vinnie who usually populate racetracks, walking around with their racing forms rolled up in their back pockets. And those pudgy, cigar chompers named Louie or Charlie will be replaced for the day by svelte Generation X’ers and Y’s wearing sports coats, designer sun glasses and plenty of hair gel.
And the women at the Derby — who in the past included Jessica Simpson, Heidi Montag, Holly Madison and Bo Derek — are sure to be dressed to the nines.
Anyway, these days celebs are being paid big bucks to host parties. Usually it’s popular party girls like Paris Hilton, Britney Spears and the like. They collect tens of thousands of dollars to show up, blow kisses to their admirers then sway to the music from behind the velvet VIP ropes. Sometimes they stay for an hour, and maybe even two if they’re really having fun.
That’s because fabulous people always have better places to go, so they can’t stay anywhere too long.
This year, TV’s Kim Kardashian is hosting the Derby Spectacular on May 1 at Glassworks in Louisville. If you want to go, tickets are $150, but to increase you chances of actually seeing Kim — and to avoid the line out front — you might want to consider peeling off a couple of hundred more for the $350 VIP status.
However, as a VIP you are important, but not quite that important. Because at Glassworks they have Ultra VIP. As an Ultra VIP, you pay $750, but get access to the first three floors, the rooftop and the Loft Blue celebrity lounge.
Yep, hanging out with fabulous people is expensive. And if you plan to go to Glassworks, my advice is not to buy too many drinks.
Because it’s tough to bet on the Kentucky Derby when your pockets are empty.
It’s got to be frustrating for the other trainers racing against Bob Baffert with maiden special weight sprinters. Baffert continues to dominate these races and the other guys are left fighting for the few crumbs that Bob leaves behind.
Depending on whether Baffert has two horses in the race, sometimes the other trainers can’t even get second money, as Baffert’s horses often finish 1-2.
Baffert saddled #8 Ride Me Fast, who showed brilliant speed on March 4 while tracking a 44 second half mile. In her debut race Jan. 11, the filly ran a 77 Beyer Speed Figure that proved she could win at this level.
As the race began, Baffert’s other entry #2 Belated Bid rushed up on the inside to knock heads with #7 Gumption on the backstretch. Jockey Tyler Baze reserved Ride Me Fast a length off the lead then eased to the front while 3-wide on the turn.
And once Baze got Ride Me Fast rolling in the homestretch nobody got within a length of her to the finish.
I bet $400 on #8 Ride Me Fast and collected $1,960. But I also spread another $500 in the race by betting $100 on #2 Belated Bid at 25/1, $150 on first-timer Bread ‘n Water at 12/1, and $250 on #3 First Grade at 9/2, who was also debuting.
To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.
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Jockey Joel Rosario got nailed on the wire by #2 Saint's Crown
You almost never see it.
A horse sets the pace down the backstretch then clearly gets passed in the lane. But all of a sudden, the runner who was seemingly left for dead, wakes up and comes with a furious rally to win the race.
However, that’s just what happened when #2 Saint’s Crown shot up the inside to catch #4 Justalittletipsy on the wire. Ridden by Pedro Arambula, who notched just his third win of the year, Saint’s Crown took the field down the backstretch and led on the turn.
But Saint’s Crown was competitive and wanted the victory more. She kept battling on the inside and prevailed.
I bet $200 on #4 Justalittletipsy and was prepared to bet $300 on #7 Xtraordinary, but she fell just below my 2/1 minimum price.
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Although he didn’t look like much in the Daily Racing Form, #5 My Man Sumo outclassed this field while dominating the race from start to finish.
It was a tremendous training job by the underrated Rafael Becerra, who does good work bringing maidens off layoffs. He took My Man Sumo over from Wesley Ward after the gelding had run three unspectacular races last summer at Del Mar and Fairplex.
My Man Sumo, who last ran on Sept. 13, had always shown speed, but couldn’t last. Becerra hid this horse’s talent from horseplayers by working him out slowly, but jockey Alex Solis broke him well from the gate and he was never challenged for the lead, winning by four lengths.
The favorite trained by Mike Mitchell, #4 Morton Owen, made a wide run on the turn then flattened out in the stretch while Bob Baffert’s runner #7 Only Be Cause pushed the pace then came up empty late.
I bet $250 on #5 My Man Sumo and collected $2,025. But I also put $400 on #4 Morton Owen, so I profited a total of $1,375 on the race.
To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.
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Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races
Maiden Special Weight, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3 yo filles
Possible overlays Morning line
#1 Bread ‘n Water 15/1
#2 Belated Bid 8/1
#3 First Grade 4/1
#8 Ride Me Fast 5/1
The most talented horse in this race, I believe, is #8 Ride Me Fast, who is owned by Mike Pegram and trained by Bob Baffert. In her last race on March 4, Ride Me Fast was a length away from a pace setter who burned a quarter mile in 21.60 seconds and was two lengths behind a half in 44 seconds flat. And in her debut, she showed that she could finish by running a 77 Beyer Speed Figure while missing by a half a length.
Early speed isn’t that important at 6-1/2 furlongs, but I believe jockey Tyler Baze will get her to relax and she’ll finish with good energy.
Baffert also starts #2 Belated Bid who led in her debut without much encouragement from the jockey, but the pace was not quick. The only way I can see this horse winning is if it comes from behind and Baffert is slick enough to make that happen after baiting us with Ride Me Fast.
First-time starters #1 Bread ‘n Water and #3 First Grade look like good possibilities if their prices are right.
I will bet $400 to win on #8 Ride Me Fast at 2/1 and up, $1oo on #2 Belated Bid at 4/1 and higher, $150 on #1 Bread ‘n Water at 10/1 to 19/1 only and $250 on #3 First Grade at 7/2 and up.
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races
Maiden claiming $25,000, 6-1/2 furlongs, 4 yo and up, f&m
Possible overlays Morning line
#4 Justalittletipsy 9/2
#5 Tiz Salsa 2/1
#7 Xtraordinary 5/2
The main question with #5 Tiz Salsa is why did trainer Jerry Hollendorfer give this filly up? Usually when a horse goes from a successful trainer to a low-percentage conditioner the horse doesn’t run as well. And the ownership of Thomas and York is the same as it was on Feb. 16, so this runner was not just purchased.
Absolutely, Tiz Salsa has the Beyer Speed Figures to win this race, but is this the same horse that Hollendorfer trained? I think not.
So the next best two horses are #7 Xtraordinary and #4 Justalittletipsy. Xtraordinary has a bit of speed and has run well enough in the past to win at this level. She’s had 11 races, but 8 of them were at maiden special weight and she faced allowance horses once.
Peter Miller trains #4 Justalittletipsy, who came on with a good charge in the stretch in her debut. With better position early in the race, she might improve enough to win.
I will bet $200 on #4 Justalittletipsy from 5/2 to 9/1 and $300 on #7 Xtraordinary from 2/1 to 7/2.
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races
Maiden claiming $32,000, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3 yo’s
Possible overlays Morning line
#4 Morton Owen 2/1
#5 My Man Sumo 5/1
#7 Only Be Cause 5/2
Trainer Mike Mitchell is usually dominant in a race like this, but the one equal he has in maiden races is Bob Baffert. Both trainers start contending horses in this race.
Mitchell’s runner #4 Morton Owen ran a 76 Beyer Speed Figure in a maiden claiming $85,000 sprint on Feb. 16. But then the trainer ran Morton Owen in two route races and it didn’t seem like he could handle the competition. He should run better with the class drop and cut back in distance.
On the far outside, #7 Only Be Cause missed by a nose in his last, which was at the same class and distance for Baffert. Only Be Cause has been running Beyer Speed Figures that are right in the range of the median winning number of 68 for the class. He’s been caught wide in his most recent races and with this post position he may get a wide trip once again.
Over the past couple of years, Rafael Becerra has won several maiden races with horses coming back off long recent layoffs. Today, he saddles #5 My Man Sumo who showed speed in his previous races and could do the job at a price.
I will bet $250 on #5 My Man Sumo between 2/1 and 9/1, but I’ll reduce the wager to $100 if he’s 10/1 or more.
Also, I want $300 to win on #4 Morton Owen at 8/5 to 3/1 only, but if outside that range then I’ll opt for $200 on #7 Only Be Cause instead, as long as he’s at least 2/1.
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