Saturday, Hollywood Park Race 10 — post time 5:30 pm

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden special weight, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2 year-olds

Possible overlays             Morning line

#3 Paddy’s Prayer                 5/1
#4 Zero Manners                   20/1
#5 Seattle Ruler                    12/1
#8 Ranger Heartley                6/1
#1 Amore Di Aleyna                6/1
#10 Deputy Max                    20/1
#1A Summers at Delmar        6/1

My strategy is to play against #6 Alfarabi, #11 Zip Quick and most likely #3 Paddy’s Prayer. According to the morning line maker, these three colts all figure to be bet from 9/5 to 5/1 and my figures show that these types of horses are terrible wagers at low odds in this type of race.

Instead, I will spread and try to catch a price. None of the second-time starters except #11 Zip Quick ran too strong of a Beyer Speed Figure in their debuts. Mike Harrington trains #5 Seattle Ruler and that one has the quickest first quarter mile, however several of the others either hopped at the start or were off slowly in their first races.

Many times, horses who had trouble at the start in their debuts will comeback and run much better with a good break. First-time starters #3 Paddy’s Prayer, #4 Zero Manners and #10 Deputy Max look like decent wagers, but only if their odds are right.

I will bet $150 to win on both #5 Seattle Ruler and #8 Ranger Heartley at 4/1 or more, and any of these first-time starters but only at odds of 10/1 to 19/1: #3 Paddy’s Prayer, #4 Zero Manners, #10 Deputy Max and #12 Google Me.

Results, Hollywood Park Sunday Race 4 — lost $350

Trainer Doug O'Neill's first time starter Necessary Evil set a new track record

Trainer Doug O'Neill's first time starter Necessary Evil set a new track record

Trainer Doug O’Neill continued his 2009 success with 2-year-old first-time starters when #5 Necessary Evil established a new cushion track record in winning by 3-3/4 lengths.

O’Neill used jockey Joel Rosario in this race, which had eight first time starters of the nine runners. Necessary Evil, who was bought for $160,000, showed three quick workouts and I was prepared to wager on her at 7-to-2 or better, but she ended up as the 9-to-5 favorite.

Necessary Evil broke with the pack, then Rosario sent her to the lead. She was pursued down the backstretch and on the turn by #8 Laura’s Pleasure, ridden by Michael Baze. But that one ran out of gas at the quarter pole and nobody threathened thereafter.

I bet $200 on second-time starter #9 Win for M’lou at 9/2 and $150 on #1 Ghost Shadow at 12/1.

© Copyright Maiden King, 2009. Written exclusively for  maidenking.wordpress.com. Not to be duplicated or reprinted.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Ghost Shadow (KY) Baze T Talbot S 12.50 6
2 2 Gambling Pokerface (CA) Arambula P Coffee C 63.50 8
3 3 Magic Yodeler (CA) Solis A Harrington M 5.70 4
4 4 Rote (KY) Smith M Miller P 6.80 7
5 5 Necessary Evil (KY) Rosario J O’Neill D 1.90 1
6 6 Mi Sueno (KY) Garcia M Guillot E 3.00 2
7 7 Lena Miss (KY) Delgadillo A Stute M 49.50 9
8 8 Laura’s Pleasure (KY) Baze M Ayers R 20.30 5
9 9 Win for M’lou (KY) Valdivia, Jr. J Sherlock G 4.90 3
Pgm Win Place Show
5 $5.80 $3.80 $2.60
6 $4.40 $3.00
9 $3.20
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $8.70 (5-6)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $

Results, Hollywood Park Saturday Race 5 — won $1,540

suitcase-money_~bxp27828[1]When I looked at this race the night before, I couldn’t figure out why the morning-line maker was favoring #2 Sterling Outlook and #4 Roman Counsel over #9 Really Uptown.

In his two lifetime races, Really Uptown ran Beyer Speed Figures of 71 and 74, while Sterling Outlook earned just a 59 in his only race and second-time starter Roman Counsel got a 69 for his debut. The figures on the latter two horses would have been OK had they shown superior early speed, but Really Uptown pressed a quarter mile in 21-4/5ths seconds on May 7, while the other two sat behind a pace that was a full second slower in their debuts. Furthermore, in his May 7 race, Really Uptown broke out of the disadvantageous post postion number 6 at 4-1/2 furlongs, so he didn’t get an easy trip. 

Yet, the morning line had Sterling Outlook at 3-to-1, Roman Counsel at 5-to-2 and Really Uptown at 9-to-2. To me, something was very wrong with that picture.

During Saturday’s actual betting, the public pounded first-time starter #10 The Skinny Man down to 6-to-5 and sent Roman Counsel off as the 7-to-2 second choice. They were more realistic about Sterling Outlook’s chances, making him 5-to-1, and Really Uptown left the gate at 9-to-2.

During the running of the race, Roman Counsel shot from the stalls and quickly established a one-length lead on three horses: Sterling Outlook, #7 Southern Saint and The Skinny Man, who ran together into the turn. Meanwhile, jockey Victor Espinosa was content to sit four-lengths off the pace with Really Uptown.

But midway on the turn, Espinosa made a three-wide move with Really Uptown to get within a length of Roman Counsel who was game. He inched into that one’s lead, then Really Uptown got up in the final stride to beat his stablemate.

I bet $150 on first timers #1 Icey Temper at 13/1 and $150 on #5 Siete Machos at 19/1. Also, I had a $400 bet on Really Uptown for which I got back $2,250 resulting in a $1,550 profit.

© Copyright Maiden King, 2009. Written exclusively for  maidenking.wordpress.com. Not to be duplicated or reprinted.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Icey Temper (KY) Solis A Ayers R 13.20 6
2 2 Sterling Outlook (KY) Baze T Miller P 5.10 4
3 3 Ranger Heartley (KY) Sorenson D Hebert J 62.10 5
4 4 Roman Counsel (CA) Gryder A Harrington M 3.90 2
5 5 Siete Machos (NY) Rosario J Solis W 19.10 9
6 6 Summers At Delmar (KY) Valdivia, Jr. J La Croix D 75.00 7
7 7 Southern Saint (KY) Garcia M Guillot E 29.20 10
9 8 Really Uptown (CA) Espinoza V Harrington M 4.60 1
10 9 The Skinny Man (KY) Nakatani C O’Neill D 1.20 3
11 10 Saarface (KY) Baze M O’Neill D 53.80 8
SCR Get My Fix (KY) Talamo J Koriner B
 
Pgm Win Place Show
9 $11.20 $4.80 $3.00
4 $4.20 $2.60
10 $2.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $18.70 (9-4)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $92.10 (8-3-9)
$1.00 Superfecta

Sunday, Hollywood Park Race 4 — 2:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 5 furlongs, 2-year-old fillies

Possible overlays              Morning line

#1 Ghost Shadow                5/1
#2 Gambling Pokerface       20/1
#3 Magic Yodeler               5/1
#4 Rote                           5/1
#5 Necessary Evil              7/2
#6 Mi Sueno                     4/1
#7 Lena Miss                    20/1
#8 Laura’s Pleasure          8/1
#9 Win for M’lou                9/2

I couldn’t throw anybody out right now.

Why?

Because I think any of the horses can win this race, which has eight first-timers going out of the nine starters. The most likely winner of the debuters is #5 Necessary Evil, who is trained by Doug O’Neill. This filly has three swift workouts showing in her past performances and O’Neill won with four of his last 12 with this type of 2 year old.

The Hollywood Park morning line maker rated six of the eight first timers at odds of between 7-to-2 and 8-to-1. But I think two or three of these fillies will be greater than 10-to-1 and those are the ones that I will wager on.

The one experienced runner is #9 Win for M’lou. She showed some decent speed in her debut.

My bets will be $200 to win on #5 Necessary Evil at 7/2 or more; and $150 to win on any of these horses at 10/1 to 19/1 only: #1 Ghost Shadow, #2 Gambling Pokerface, #3 Magic Yodeler, #4 Rote, #6 Mi Sueno, #7 Lena Miss and #8 Laura’s Pleasure.

If two or fewer of the horses above fall into the betting zone, then I will also bet $200 on #9 Win for M’lou at 5/2 to 7/1 only. But if I’m able to bet three or more of the firsters, then I won’t wager on Win for M’lou at all.

© Copyright Maiden King, 2009. Written exclusively for  maidenking.wordpress.com. Not to be duplicated or reprinted.

Saturday, Hollywood Park Race 5 — 3 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 5 furlongs, 2-year-olds

Possible overlays                Morning line

#1 Icy Temper                      15/1
#3 Ranger Heartley                20/1
#5 Siete Machos                   15/1
#6 Summers at Del Mar          20/1
#8 Get My Fix                       6/1
#9 Really Uptown                  9/2
#10 The Skinny Man              5/1
#11 Saarface                       20/1

Seven first-time starters go in this race and I listed them all above as possible overlays, but realistically only a few of them will go off at a price fit for betting.

The best of the debuters looks like #10 The Skinny Man. J Paul Reddam, the owner, loves to use Corey Nakatani and his horses have had success in their first lifetime races. Furthermore, trainer Doug O’Neill has good numbers with this type of horse.

Of the experienced horses, I like #9 Really Uptown. The median Beyer Speed Figure for this class is 76 and Really Uptown ran a 74 in his last start while breaking from the unfavorable #6 post at 4-1/2 furlongs. The morning-line maker has #4 Roman Counsel and #2 Sterling Outlook at lower prices than Really Uptown, who not only has better Beyers but looks to be much quicker from the gate. If Really Uptown is a higher price than these two, I will bet him with both hands.

At the window, I will put $150 to win on any of these debuters at 10/1 to 19/1 only:  #1 Icey Temper, #3 Ranger Heartley, #5 Siete Machos, #6 Summers At Delmar, #8 Get My Fix and #11 Saarface. Also, I want $300 to win on #10 The Skinny Man at 7/2 or better and $400 to win on #9 Really Uptown at 3/1 or more.

© Copyright Maiden King, 2009. Written exclusively for  maidenking.wordpress.com. Not to be duplicated or reprinted.

Results, Hollywood Park Sunday Race 4 — lost $300

Jockey Corey Nakatani gunned #11 Repo to the lead to win at 4-1/2 furlongs

Jockey Corey Nakatani gunned #11 Repo to the lead to win at 4-1/2 furlongs

In these 4-1/2 furlong 2-year-old maiden races, first-time starters breaking from anything but posts 1-4 are at a tremendous disadvantage.

The gate is so close to the first turn that jockeys in post #5 through #10 need to blast from the gate to the lead. If they gun, but don’t make the lead then often they end up wide and their horse has no energy for the stretch. Also, many of these horses are so young that they haven’t learned to rate well from behind.

In Sunday’s fourth, #11 Repo broke from the #10 post and didn’t leave the gate that well. She was in midpack a few seconds into the race, but then she burst by them all to shoot to the lead as the field moved into the turn. Jockey Corey Nakatani moved Repo to the rail, but with the tremendous use of early energy she was in danger of tiring in the stretch.

But, instead, Repo found a second wind that she used to bound away from the field by four lengths at the wire. It was an impressive victory against a strong post position bias.

My bet in the race was $300 to win on #3 Cougarette, a first-time starter who broke from post position #3 but never got into the race at 7-to-2.

© Copyright Maiden King, 2009. Written exclusively for Maiden King. Not to be duplicated or reprinted, especially by a website called Our Blogs Kentucky Derby Everything You Need To Know.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

 

 

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Chatty Lula (CA) Sorenson D Solis W 7.00 5
2 2 Sam’s Special (CA) Arambula P Ayers R 19.90 8
3 3 Cougarette (CA) Baze T Mulhall K 3.80 10
5 4 Tiz Folly (CA) Rosario J Velasquez D 29.10 7
6 5 Three for Marino (CA) Garcia M Walsh K 2.50 3
7 6 Camille C (CA) Baze M Polanco M 6.30 2
8 7 Dinnr With Nikki C (CA) Bejarano R Sherlock G 11.70 9
9 8 Fishin With T Ball (CA) Gryder A La Croix D 6.40 4
10 9 Billssecondchance (CA) Stra K Martinez S 20.00 6
11 10 Repo (CA) Nakatani C O’Neill D 10.30 1
SCR Summer Soprano (CA) Delgadillo A Stute G
 
Pgm Win Place Show
11 $22.60 $9.60 $5.60
7 $6.60 $4.60
6 $3.40
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $68.40 (11-7)

$1.00

Results, Santa Anita Saturday Race 6 — lost $400

Trainer Ron Ellis continues to do well with horses coming off of layoffs

Trainer Ron Ellis continues to do well with horses coming off of layoffs

Horseplayers bet #2 Unionize in this race like he couldn’t lose.

And, of course, not only did he lose but Unionize didn’t even hit the board.

The Clifford Sise-trained colt was coming off of two second-place finishes where he earned Beyer Speed Figures of 90 and 87. Bettors pounded Unionize to 3-to-5, and I looked at the show pool with about 10 minutes to go and Unionize had $51,000 of the $60,000 that was wagered.

Obviously, a bride jumper dumped $40,000 to $45,000 to show on Unionize, which created inflated payoffs for the first, second and third finishers in that pool.

For example, #6 Speight the Halo ran third at 7-to-2 and paid $16.40 to show while #9 Truest Legend won the race, but his show payoff of $32.80 was larger than the $24.60 he paid to win.

Score one for the folks who bet horses across the board.

Truest Legend, who was making his second lifetime start, had a published purchase price of $240,000. But the best thing about him was that Ron Ellis was doing the training.

Coming into the race Ellis had won with four of his last 14 runners coming off layoffs of six months or more. And Truest Legend hadn’t run since September when he showed good speed at Fairplex before falling apart in the stretch at 53-to-1.

In this race, Truest Legend blasted from the gate and established a large lead by running the first quarter mile in 21.25 seconds. He rolled through the next quarter in 22.24 seconds, then if anybody was going to catch him they would have blown by when Truest Legend could only muster a third quarter in 25.52 seconds.

But none of the other eight horses made a move.

I focused my betting on #6 Speight the Halo, who I bet $200 on at 7/2 and boxed him in the exacta with the favorite for $100 each way.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

 

 

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Absolutlypositivly (CA) Garcia M Chew M 55.50 7
2 2 Unionize (KY) Baze T Sise, Jr. C 0.60 4
3 3 Collalto (CA) Baze M Chew M 44.10 8
4 4 Kumiva (KY) Bejarano R Bell, II T 10.20 5
5 5 Brian the Brave (KY) Hill C O’Callaghan C 29.90 6
6 6 Speight the Halo (KY) Gryder A Harty E 3.60 3
7 7 Margarita Shot (KY) Delgadillo A DeLeon R 11.50 2
8 8 Right One (KY) Rosario J Lobo P 20.00 9
9 9 Truest Legend (FL) Espinoza V Ellis R 11.30 1
 
Pgm Win Place Show
9 $24.60 $13.20 $32.80
7 $10.80 $25.20
6 $16.40
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $100.30 (9-7)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $604.40 (8-6-9)
$1.00

Saturday, Santa Anita Race 6 — 3:05 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3-year-olds

Possible overlays                                Morning line

#2 Unionize                                               8/5
#6 Speight the Halo                                    4/1

Trained by Clifford Sise, #2 Unionize was 15-to-1 when he ran a 90 Beyer Speed Figure in his debut, which is good enough to win at this class. But Unionize unfortunately ran into Point Encounter when they raced on opening day at Santa Anita.

Unionize came back on March 7 to practically duplicate his first race, however he could only muster a second-place finish to Leavenworth, another super-charged maiden first time starter. Since the median Beyer Speed Figure for this class is a mere 85, Unionize obviously has the talent to win, but he’s likely to be even money.

One horse who may upset him is #6 Speight the Halo, who is coming off a seven month layoff. In his first race on June 29, Speight the Halo looked to be long gone in deep stretch, but S.S. Stone came like an express train late to roll by.

Speight the Halo was more than three lengths clear of third-place finisher Street Hero that day. He’s been training well and maybe Eoin Harty has him at his best.

I will bet $200 to win on #6 Speight the Halo at 2/1 or more and a $100 exacta box #2 Unionize with #6 Speight the Halo.

Results, Santa Anita Sunday Race 6 — won $1,060

a-money-roll It’s got to be frustrating for the other trainers racing against Bob Baffert with maiden special weight sprinters. Baffert continues to dominate these races and the other guys are left fighting for the few crumbs that Bob leaves behind.

Depending on whether Baffert has two horses in the race, sometimes the other trainers can’t even get second money, as Baffert’s horses often finish 1-2.

Baffert saddled #8 Ride Me Fast, who showed brilliant speed on March 4 while tracking a 44 second half mile. In her debut race Jan. 11, the filly ran a 77 Beyer Speed Figure that proved she could win at this level.

As the race began, Baffert’s other entry #2 Belated Bid rushed up on the inside to knock heads with #7 Gumption on the backstretch. Jockey Tyler Baze reserved Ride Me Fast a length off the lead then eased to the front while 3-wide on the turn.

And once Baze got Ride Me Fast rolling in the homestretch nobody got within a length of her to the finish.

I bet $400 on #8 Ride Me Fast and collected $1,960. But I also spread another $500 in the race by betting $100 on #2 Belated Bid at 25/1, $150 on first-timer Bread ‘n Water at 12/1, and $250 on #3 First Grade at 9/2, who was also debuting.  

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Bread ‘n Water (KY) Nakatani C Dollase C 12.00 4
2 2 Belated Bid (KY) Rosario J Baffert B 25.70 10
3 3 First Grade (KY) Bejarano R Hollendorfer J 4.60 3
4 4 She’s Borracho (KY) Talamo J Mullins J 2.40 2
5 5 Guided Wave (KY) Solis A Gallagher P 15.90 8
6 6 Alphabet Cat (CA) Flores D Moreno H 30.80 7
7 7 Gumption (KY) Smith M Headley B 3.80 6
8 8 Ride Me Fast (KY) Baze T Baffert B 3.90 1
9 9 Running After Boys (CA) Espinoza V Kitchingman A 15.30 9
10 10 Lion Princess (KY) Rios J West T 24.50 5
 
Pgm Win Place Show
8 $9.80 $4.80 $3.20
4 $3.80 $2.80
3 $3.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $17.60 (8-4)
$1.

Results, Santa Anita Saturday Race 5 — lost $550

Trainer Ron Ellis scored with a longshot FTS #3 Canonize

Trainer Ron Ellis scored with longshot FTS #3 Canonize

Horseplayers have core handicapping beliefs that tend to make them favor safe maidens — like recently raced runners with high Beyer numbers, while steering clear of perceived riskier types — like longshot first time starters and horses coming off long layoffs.

Thoroughbred racing is a good gambling game, because if horseplayers look closely enough, and mine enough coal, they’ll discover a few types of bets where they’ll have a long-term advantage. Of course, if bettors show a healthy profit on certain types of wagers, then other types must be huge losers.

It’s just the nature of the game. 

If the track takeout is 15 percent, not every angle over time will return 85 cents for every dollar bet. Some will return $1.25, while others just 65 cents.

And I’ve discovered one of the absolute worst bets in Southern California. It’s a first-time starter whose post time odds are below 7-to-2. So many times I see debut horses breaking slowly or not running their best until their second start. So, why take a short price?

According to my records, of the 203 first timers I have who were less than 7-to-2, just 44 of them won or 21 percent. And if you bet them all, you’d be losing 33 cents on the dollar. So, why bet any of them?

Most of these horses have high percentage jockeys and trainers, a hefty purchase price, and lots of good workouts including several bullets. Believe me, when you see one of these animals do your bank account a favor and stay away.

In Saturday’s fifth race, #10 Raymorrison was just such a beast. This first timer was hammered down to 2-to-1 by Santa Anita horseplayers, who must have been baited in by the perceived safety of Raymorrison’s six bullet workouts, decent connections and $110,000 purchase price.

Raymorrison ended up running fairly well, as he stalked the pace and hung on for second. The one positive aspect of these low-performing, heavily bet first timers is that they create opportunities for overlays on other horses in the race.

In Saturday’s race, first timers #6 Company Tiger and #11 Hidden Blessing  had long-term profitable angles going for them. And #3 Canonize was another profit fit until his price drifted out of my 7/2 to 19/1 betting zone as the horses were loading into the gate. Maybe it was the 50,000 fans onhand for the SA Derby that pushed up the price.

Anyway, Canonize ended up winning the race by open lengths for trainer Ron Ellis and he paid $49.20.

My plan was to bet $250 on #3 Canonize if his post time odds landed between 7/2 and 19/1. I would have won about $5,000 if he stayed at 19/1 but since Canonize was 23/1 my alternative plan kicked in so I did not have a nickel of website money on him. 

In the end, I ended up betting $150 on #6 Company Tiger at 9/1; and $200 on both #8 Vanquest at 5/2 and #11 Hidden Blessing at 5/1.

 To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Caspian (KY) Solis A Hendricks D 15.50 5
2 2 Candy Store (KY) Nakatani C Yakteen T 21.10 10
3 3 Canonize (KY) Valdivia, Jr. J Ellis R 23.60 1
4 4 Gato Roar (KY) Baze T Mullins J 16.80 6
5 5 Ego (KY) Baze M Vargas J 50.90 9
6 6 Company Tiger (KY) Rosario J Paasch C 9.60 11
7 7 Ducane (KY) Flores D Pletcher T 13.40 8
8 8 Vanquest (NY) Garcia M Sadler J 2.60 3
9 9 Best Mon (KY) Bejarano R Harty E 13.00 7
10 10 Raymorrison (KY) Gryder A McAnally R 2.30 2
11 11 Hidden Blessing (KY) Gomez G Armstrong J 5.50 4
 
Pgm Win Place Show
3 $49.20 $19.00 $7.20
10 $4.20 $3.20
8 $3.00
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $119.50 (3-10)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $758.10 (6-6-3)
$1.00 Superfecta

Saturday, Santa Anita Race 5 — 2:05 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 6 furlongs, 3-year-olds

Possible overlays                    Morning line

#3 Canonize                               8/1
#6 Company Tiger                      10/1
#7 Ducane                                 12/1
#8 Vanquest                              3/1
#11 Hidden Blessing                    5/1

Of the 11 colts and geldings running in this race, seven of them are making their first lifetime start.

Many of the first timers have been working out well, but the best potential bets are #3 Canonize, #6 Company Tiger and #11 Hidden Blessing. Both Canonize and Company Tiger are owned by connections that have good records with first-out winners. Jockey Garrett Gomez rides Hidden Blessing and he often finds himself on winning debuters at this class level.  

Of the experienced runners, #8 Vanquest’s second-place finish in his last race was a few points better than the median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class. Vanquest ran behind Supreme Summit, who came back to win an  allowance race.

Coming off a seven-month layoff, the Todd Pletcher-trained #7 Ducane is showing a couple of good workouts. The 12-to-1 morning line seems very high to me considering Pletcher has a large following.

At the betting window, I will take $250 to win on #3 Canonize at 7/2 to 19/1; $200 on #11 Hidden Blessing at 7/2 or better and $150 on #6 Company Tiger at 7/2 to 19/1.

If either Canonize or Hidden Blessing fall out of the betting zone, then I will substitute for that horse only a $200 wager on #8 Vanquest at 2/1 or more.

Results, Santa Anita Saturday Race 10 — won $1,570

big-pile-of-cashBob Baffert is showing just how deadly he is when he enters two or more horses in a maiden race.

On March 22, Baffert scored with the Irish Gypsy-Mother Ruth exacta when he had three horses running in a maiden special weight sprint. And the prices weren’t too bad either, with Irish Gypsy paying 4-to-1 and Mother Ruth at 5-to-2.

On Saturday, Baffert was back at it. He had both #6 Hard Kisses and #8 Diamond Tags making their second lifetime starts. In her Feb. 22 debut, Hard Kisses finished 1-1/2 lengths behind Saturday’s favorite #3 Shiksa — but she ran a better race that day, as she was bumped at the break and went wide on the turn. Also, Shiksa — who by contrast had a great trip Feb. 22 — is trained by the struggling Patrick Biancone, who has won with just one of his last 47 starters.

Baffert’s other runner, the 9-to-2 shot Diamond Tags, showed a purchase price of $500,000 and was coming off a seven month layoff. 

During the running of the race, Hard Kisses, 5-to-1, sat in third behind pace-setters #2 Ultra Awesome and #7 Gumption. Jockey David Flores shook Hard Kisses up at the top of the lane, she came to the leaders, then took command in midstretch and never surrendered the lead. Diamond Tags lagged in last then rallied strongly to be second, which completed the  $33.50 Baffert exacta.

I had difficulty trying to separate which Baffert horse was stronger, so I let the odds board decide. My plan was to bet $350 on the longer-odds horse — which turned out to be Hard Kisses — and $250 on the other, Diamond Tags.

I collected $2,170 after wagering $600.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Wada Falls (FL) Sutherland C Mullins J 4.60 7
2 2 Ultra Awesome (KY) Bejarano R Yakteen T 7.70 8
3 3 Shiksa (KY) Talamo J Biancone P 3.40 5
4 4 Idontbelievemyeyes (KY) Blanc B Harty E 71.80 6
5 5 Crystal Empire R N (KY) Smith M Walsh K 20.50 9
6 6 Hard Kisses (ON) Flores D Baffert B 5.20 1
7 7 Gumption (KY) Solis A Headley B 3.50 4
8 8 Diamond Tags (KY) Rosario J Baffert B 4.50 2
9 9 Ruby Lane (KY) Espinoza V Capestro P 21.10 3
 
Pgm Win Place Show
6 $12.40 $5.80 $3.80
8 $5.40 $4.80
9 $8.00
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $33.50 (6-8)
$1.00 Pick

Saturday, Santa Anita Race 5 — 2:34 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 7 furlongs, 3 yo fillies

Possible overlays                             Morning line

#3 Shiksa                                            7/2
#6 Hard Kisses                                     3/1
#8 Diamond Tags                                  4/1

Here we go again.

Trainer Bob Baffert has two horses entered in here — #6 Hard Kisses and #8 Diamond Tags — and both of them look good.

Hard Kisses, a second-time starter, ran against #3 Shiksa in her debut and although she finished a half length behind Shiksa, she ran a better race. Shiksa, who was also making her first lifetime start, ran an 80 Beyer Speed Figure while rallying to be second by a neck. One big difference is that Shiksa had an excellent trip, breaking well and sitting on the rail throughout the turn.

However, Hard Kisses came out of the far outside stall and was immediately shoved a couple of lanes wider by the horse inside of her at the start. Furthermore, on the turn, Hard Kisses was hung four lanes wide the whole way and still finished within three-quarters of a length of the winner.

With the median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class being 80, both of these horses have the qualifications to win today.

Baffert’s other filly, Diamond Tags, is coming off a seven-month layoff and as we saw last Sunday, Baffert is no slouch with layoff horses. Last Sunday, Irish Gypsy beat a maiden special weight field off an eight-month layoff.  

Diamond Tags made her debut on Aug. 10 at Del Mar where she was a bit crowded at the start, stayed on the rail then rallied well into the stretch, running a 65 Beyer. Because of maturity and the Baffert magic, it would be no surprise to see this one Beyer in the 80’s.

Also, Diamond Tags, who is showing a $500,000 purchase price, has two sharp workouts including a bullet versus 60 others that worked 4 furlongs on Feb. 11. Garrett Gomez rode Diamond Tags in her debut, and of the seven Baffert debuters I have listed with Gomez none were bought for less than $230,000. So Gomez only rides the finest of Baffert’s stock.

Today, Rosario is on board as Gomez is riding Dunkirk in the Florida Derby.

On the other hand, Hal Earnhardt, the owner of Hard Kisses, is one of Baffert’s first clients and Baffert makes sure the horses Earnhardt owns win early. With the Irish Gypsy layoff win fresh in people’s minds, Bob may switch things up and win with the recently-raced animal.

In the end, I will put $350 to win on whoever goes off at longer post time odds between #6 Hard Kisses and #8 Diamond Tags, and a $250 win bet on the shorter priced Baffert runner.

Results, Santa Anita Sunday Race 7 — lost $350

Trainer Bob Baffert won Sunday's seventh with #9 Irish Gypsy, owned by Mike Pegram. (Flickr photo by Yausser)

Trainer Bob Baffert won Sunday's seventh with #9 Irish Gypsy, owned by Mike Pegram. (Flickr photo by Yausser)

When it comes to winning maiden sprints in Southern California, Bob Baffert is the master. He trains the most talented young horses on the grounds and he gets surprisingly decent pari-mutuel prices because he wins early and knows how to set things up.

For years, Baffert has often won when he starts two maiden sprinters in the same race. On Sunday, he had three runners in this 10-horse Santa Anita maiden field, so I strongly suspected at least one of them would be ultra live.

Baffert named leading jockey Garrett Gomez on first-time starter #3 Mother Ruth and Rafael Bejarano, who is second in the rider standings,  on another debuter, #1 Belated Bid. But the money horse here was #9 Irish Gypsy.

Irish Gypsy is owned by Mike Pegram, who is a close friend and long-time client of Baffert’s. This filly ran well in the summer, as she lost to juvenile filly champion Stardom Bound by just two lengths.

Entering Sunday’s race, Irish Gypsy was coming off an eight-month layoff with a series of good workouts — but the lengthy absence typically causes horseplayers to wager with caution. The rider, David Flores, is competent but doesn’t have the pari-mutuel following that Gomez and Bejarano have. And over the years, Baffert has had lots of luck with Flores.

The betting public made #3 Mother Ruth the 5-to-2 favorite after no doubt seeing her published $425,000 purchase price, six fast workouts and the fact that Gomez had won on 12 of the last 25 Baffert-trained horses. Bejarano’s mount #1 Belated Bid was a late foal and hadn’t been working out as well, but was still 9-to-1.

If Baffert entered neither of these fillies in this race, and Gomez was named on Irish Gypsy instead of Flores, then it’s safe to say that Irish Gypsy would have been less than 2-to-1. But instead she paid $10.40 to win.

I am not saying that Gomez on Mother Ruth did not try hard, as anyone who watches the replay can see the rider all over this filly in the stretch to just miss at the wire. And I am not saying that the Baffert-Pegram-Flores team is doing something wrong or unethical.

All I am saying is that Baffert is very savvy, he knows the tendencies of the betting public, and tries hard to get decent prices on his maiden winners. So, it’s profitable to learn this trainer’s maiden moves.

Speaking as somebody who hates seeing 6-to-5 shots win, I wish more trainers were like him.

After the race, (why don’t reporters ask trainers before the race??) Baffert told the Daily Racing Form’s Jay Privman that Irish Gypsy developed foot problems in 2008, so she had to be rested. “She just needed some time. If you don’t give them time, they’ll make you wait longer.”

When looking at this race for the site on Saturday night, I was tempted to bet Irish Gypsy, but put $350 on Mother Ruth because she just looked too good. But after thinking about this situation on Sunday, when my real money was on the line at race time I split my bet with 60 percent going on Mother Ruth and 40 percent on Irish Gypsy.

But, of course, I will take the $350 loss for betting Mother Ruth on the site.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Belated Bid (KY) Bejarano R Baffert B 9.60 9
3 2 Mother Ruth (KY) Gomez G Baffert B 2.90 2
4 3 Indomitable (KY) Baze T Gaines C 8.60 10
5 4 Michelle Marie (KY) Russell C West T 23.20 8
6 5 Guided Wave (KY) Solis A Gallagher P 7.90 7
7 6 Beloved Deputy (KY) Nakatani C Dollase C 30.20 5
8 7 Shehadmefromhello (KY) Baze M Guillot E 4.80 6
9 8 Irish Gypsy (KY) Flores D Baffert B 4.20 1
10 9 She’s Borracho (KY) Talamo J Mullins J 5.80 4
11 10 Lisa Jean (NY) Rosario J Jones M 24.40 3
SCR Lion Heart’s Bluff (KY)    
 
Pgm Win Place Show
9 $10.40 $4.80 $3.60
3 $4.40 $3.60
11 $10.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $19.80 (9-3)
$1.00 Pick

Sunday, Santa Anita Race 7 — 3:36 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 6 furlongs, 3 yo fillies

Possible overlays                       Morning line

#1 Belated Bid                               8/1
#3 Mother Ruth                             3/1
#4 Indomitable                              10/1
#7 Beloved Deputy                        12/1
#9 Irish Gypsy                               4/1
#10 She’s Borracho                       8/1

For trainers Carla Gaines, Ted West, Patrick Gallagher, Craig Dollase, Eric Guillot, Jeff Mullins and Marty Jones: I feel sorry for you, because you have no chance.

Bob Baffert has you surrounded.

Baffert has three independent betting entries in this race and they are all less than 10-to-1 on the morning line. Over the years, Baffert has excelled at winning maiden races when he’s started two horses. In this race, he has three bullets.

The first, #1 Belated Bid is the Baffert filly who is least likely to win. She doesn’t have many fast workouts and the owner doesn’t often win with his first timers. If Baffert wins, er I mean when Baffert wins, he’ll  likely be getting his picture taken with either #3 Mother Ruth or #9 Irish Gypsy.

Mother Ruth, who is showing a purchase price of $425,000, has turned in a steady ledger of fast workouts for her debut. Garrett Gomez rides and he’s won on 12 of the last 25 Bob Baffert-trained horses that he’s ridden. No question, Mother Ruth looks good. 

Maybe too good. Could Bob just be baiting us with Mother Ruth to get a price on #9 Irish Gypsy? After all, Irish Gypsy is owned by his friend Mike Pegram.

Irish Gypsy, who ran two lengths behind Stardom Bound on July 20,  is coming off an eight-month layoff and has shown quick, early accelleration in past races, so she has a shot.

And if all Baffert’s plans are foiled and the unforeseen happens, I will be covering first timers #4 Indomitable, #7 Beloved Deputy and #10 She’s Borracho. But only if their prices are right.

At the betting window, the cynic in me wants to go with #9 Irish Gypsy, but instead I will play the percentages and put $350 to win on #3 Mother Ruth at 2/1 or higher. Also, I want $150 on these three horses — #4 Indomitable, #7 Beloved Deputy and #10 She’s Borracho — but only at 10/1 to 19/1.

If Mother Ruth is bet to less than 2/1, then I will put $200 to win on #9 Irish Gypsy instead.

Saturday, Santa Anita Race 6 — 3:05 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 7 furlongs, 3-year-olds

Possible overlays                       Morning line

#4 Pauper’s Pride                              5/2
#8 Caspian                                      5/1
#10 Ricoriatoa                                 12/1
#11 Indy Ride                                  12/1

Although their best Beyer Speed Figures are a shade under the 83 median for the level, #4 Pauper’s Pride and #8 Caspian have the type of running style that wins at 7 furlongs.

Trained by Vladimir Cerin, Pauper’s Pride chased Gotmymojoworkin to the wire on Jan 3 while blowing by a weakening Wall Street Wonder in the stretch. Wall Street Wonder returned next time out to win a maiden special weight race easily and has been competiting in stakes since.

Caspian is running in his second start. During his Feb 28 debut, Caspian lagged at the back of the six-horse field then rallied. Unless one of the three first timers show speed, #10 Ricoriatoa should get the lead. He chased quick fractions while wide on Oct. 17 at Keeneland and has been working out well.

Finally, #11 Indy Ride, a first-time starter for trainer Bill Spawr, may be a good bet at the right price.

I will bet $300 on the longer of the two prices between #4 Pauper’s Pride and #8 Caspian and $200 on the shorter price. If either of them are less than 3/1 then I won’t bet that one.  Also, I will take $150 on #11 Indy Ride at 10/1 to 19/1 only, but if Indy Ride doesn’t fall into the odds zone then I want $100 on #10 Ricoriatoa at 14/1 or less.

Results, Santa Anita Sunday Race 7 — lost $550

Trainer Carla Gaines teamed with jockey Rafael Bejarano to win with a first timer

Trainer Carla Gaines teamed with jockey Rafael Bejarano to win with a first timer

While watching the tote board during the betting of this race, I was curious about why the odds on #5 Irridescent Red were so high. I commented to someone that #6 Humane was 6-to-1 and she had run a 59 Beyer Speed Figure in her only race, while Irridescent Red was nearly 20-to-1 and she probably had better early speed and ran a 67 Beyer in her debut.

If Irridescent Red looked that bad then somebody should have told the horse, because this 19-to-1 shot had winning on her mind. Jockey Aaron Gryder made a clear easy lead with her on the backstretch, then  turning for home, race caller Trevor Denman said encouragingly “Irridescent Red goes on, leads it by three.”

But then first-time starter Excessive Blend, at 9-to-2,  started gobbling up ground with huge strides and by midstretch it was clear that nobody was going to beat her. Irridescent Red, however, held onto second.

Carla Gaines, who trains Excessive Blend, worked this filly out slowly, but the horse did go a quick 4 furlongs in 48 seconds on March 3. In my opinion — after looking at the breeding, the connections and the workouts in the DRF —  Excessive Blend’s odds were much too low for a wager.

I bet $150 on Irridescent Red at 19/1, $250 on #7 Asanti who finished third and $150 on #11 Past Curfew at 8/1.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Irish Pepper (CA) Gomez G Sadler J 3.40 6
2 2 Suances Sweetheart (CA) Rosario J Vienna D 22.10 9
3 3 Excessive Blend (CA) Bejarano R Gaines C 4.70 1
4 4 Imadethecashcall (CA) Flores D Kitchingman A 25.50 10
5 5 Irridescent Red (CA) Gryder A Becerra R 19.60 2
6 6 Humane (CA) Baze T Meredith D 7.30 8
7 7 Asanti (KY) Quinonez A Gonzalez J 3.00 3
8 8 Bell Canyon Road (CA) Solis A Abrams B 12.50 5
9 9 Mary the Princess (CA) Nakatani C Periban J 46.70 11
10 10 Gifted Gina (CA) Delgadillo A Periban J 10.20 7
11 11 Past Curfew (CA) Smith M Puype M 8.40 4
Pgm Win Place Show
3 $11.40 $8.00 $5.60
5 $17.40 $7.80
7 $3.40
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $84.10 (3-5)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $138.30 (4-3-3)
$1.00 Superfecta

Results, Santa Anita Saturday Race 4 — lost $150

Trainer Jeff Mullins' SA maiden win was overshadowed by his Gotham victory

Trainer Jeff Mullins' SA maiden win was overshadowed by his Gotham victory

What a difference a race makes.

On opening day at Santa Anita, which was the first time #8 Unionize ran, he went off at 15-to-1 for trainer Clifford Sise. Sise had him ready to roll as Unionize earned a 90 Beyer Speed Figure while unsuccessfully trying to chase down Point Encounter.

On Satuday, with Garrett Gomez up, Unionize’s odds were smashed to 1-to-2, and although much more money was bet on him this time, the results were exactly the same.

Unionize finished second once again.

This time Unionize was chasing #1 Leavenworth, a 4-to-1 shot who was showing a purchase price of $250,000 and was training well for Jeff Mullins. It was a big day for Mullins, who also won the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct Saturday with I Want Revenge.

Anyway, the only time it looked like any horse could possibly catch Leavenworth was at the top of the stretch. But then jockey Tyler Baze eased into another gear and drew off. 

I bet $150 on #3 Temerity who was running in his second race back off a layoff, but never threatened.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

 

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Leavenworth (KY) Baze T Mullins J 4.40 1
2 2 Dixie Passion (KY) Rosario J Machowsky M 12.50 4
3 3 Temerity (KY) Smith M Ellis R 6.00 6
4 4 Gaz (KY) Espinoza V Greely C 38.00 7
5 5 Brian the Brave (KY) Sutherland C O’Callaghan C 25.30 8
6 6 Devil On the Roof (KY) Albarado R Greely C 20.00 5
7 7 Margarita Shot (KY) Delgadillo A DeLeon R 24.60 3
8 8 Unionize (KY) Gomez G Sise, Jr. C 0.50 2
 
Pgm Win Place Show
1 $10.80 $4.00 $3.20
8 $2.20 $2.10
7 $5.40
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $12.40 (1-8)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $969.40 (6-10-

 

Saturday, Santa Anita Race 4 — 1:34 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3-year-olds

Possible overlays                         Morning line

#3 Temerity                                   4/1
#5 Brian the Brave                           15/1

Garrett Gomez takes over for jockey David Flores on #8 Unionize, the 8-to-5 morning line favorite. Trainer Clifford Sise had this horse ready to win in his Dec. 28 debut, as Unionize  earned a 90 Beyer Speed Figure but he couldn’t catch Point Encounter.

If, for some reason, Unionize isn’t at his best then #3 Temerity has a good chance to upset him. Ron Ellis brought this colt back from a six-month layoff on Feb. 7  to run a 79 Beyer Speed Figure in a 5-1/2 furlong race. Those races are dominated by early speed so this horse was at a disadvantage, but now fits well at 6-1/2 furlongs.

Finally, #5 Brian the Brave, a first-time starter, has a couple of swift workouts and may be a play at a price. Since I had never heard of Brian the Brave’s trainer, Carl O’Callaghan, I plugged his name into Google. I didn’t find much out about his training abilities, but discovered this native of County Clare is also a musician that spends his evenings belting out the Irish favorites at Arcadia-area bars.

I am guessing that “Irish Carl” works for Patrick Gallagher because Gallagher is the regular trainer for Super Horse, Inc., which owns Brian the Brave.

At the betting window, I will take $200 to win on #3 Temerity at 2/1 to 7/2 but just $150 to win at 4/1 and up. Also, I want a $150 win bet on #5 Brian the Brave at 5/1 to 19/1 only.

Results, Santa Anita Saturday Race 2 — lost $500

Baffert and Gomez tandem is the worst kept secret at Santa Anita

The Baffert and Gomez tandem is the worst kept secret at Santa Anita

I think I need to buy a noise maker, or at least a balloon.

It seems like the only appropriate thing to do at a parade.

Since Feb. 15, I have been watching a procession of maiden chalk march into the winner’s circle at Santa Anita. Roll back your mouse wheel to the last nine races bet on this site and you’ll see what I’m talking about.

If you don’t have time to look back, then I’ll tell you: The winners of six of the last nine races I bet paid a stimulus-seeking $5.20 or less, and three of the nine returned no more than $3.20. 

And, of course, I am left with empty pockets because I would never bet a So. Cal. maiden at 2-to-1 or less.

The paltry payoffs began Feb. 15 with High Note’s $5.20, Shock the Board followed at a hefty $30.70, then it was Mr. Holmes, $4.60; Elusive Chief, $7; Zensational, $3.20; Lady Lumberjack, $3; Scored, $14.60 and in race 2 on Saturday, Turk, $3.

To make matters worse, I finished second at fat prices in six of these races, some of which were tight photos. I had Sangaree at 7/1, Shiksa, Off the Wall and Zephaniah — all at 11-to-1, I Can Here at the respectable odds of 7-to-2, and Monolingual at 5-to1. I won with Elusive Chief at 5-to-2 and was waiting to bet monster longshot Shock the Board, but his odds drifted past 20-to-1 two minutes before post.

The damage has amounted to $2,600 in losses so far. I’m confident that these overbet favorites will start to lose sooner or later, but God only knows when.    

And that, my friends, is why you don’t quit your day job.

My bets on Saturday were $250 on both #2 Monolingual and #4 Great Legacy.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.  

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Turk (KY) Gomez G Baffert B 0.50 1
2 2 Monolingual (KY) Bejarano R Sadler J 5.30 2
3 3 Sweet Maker (KY) Talamo J Koriner B 27.70 3
4 4 Great Legacy (KY) Husbands P Harty E 8.60 6
5 5 Fabulous Forum (TX) Rosario J Miller P 15.30 4
6 6 Caspian (KY) Solis A Hendricks D 4.70 5
 
Pgm Win Place Show
1 $3.00 $2.40 $2.10
2 $3.80 $3.00
3 $4.60
 
Exotic Payoffs