Saturday, Hollywood Park Race 2 — 1:30 pm

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $25,000, 5-1/2 furlongs, 3 yo & up, F

Possible overlays                      Morning line

#3 Sister Lucy                                   12/1
#11 Mar Fina                                     7/2
#12 Veranda Cafe                              3/1

Without a doubt, the filly with the best early speed is #3 Sister Lucy. In fact, her last two races were 870 yard quarter horse dashes at Los Alamitos.  And she has already run well enough to win at this level. On Oct. 19, Sister Lucy ran a 70 Beyer Speed Figure in a maiden special weight event, which is significant because the median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class is a 67.

Two fillies coming off recent layoffs — #11 Mar Fina and #12 Veranda Cafe — also have some things to like. Coincidentally, both horses lost to monsters in their previous races, which were both in June 2008. Mar Fina ran into Rachel Alexandra when she broke her maiden and Veranda Cafe was defeated by Evita Argentina.

Trainer Mike Puype, who saddles Mar Fina, has recently excelled at bringing back second and third time starters from long vacations.

And horses who look like Veranda Cafe are excellent wagers when they are bet down a bit.

I will bet $250 to win on #11 Mar Fina at odds of 2/1 to 5/1. But if Mar Fina doesn’t fall into that range, or if #12 Veranda Cafe is a higher price than Mar Fina, then I will bet the $250 on Veranda Cafe instead as long as she is 2/1 to 7/2.

Also, I want $150 to win on #3 Sister Lucy at 9/2 or more.

Results, Hollywood Park Sunday Race 2 — lost $300

Trainer Darrell Vienna did a difficut thing: He won first time out with an older maiden.

Trainer Darrell Vienna did a difficult thing: He won first time out with an older maiden.

Darrell Vienna is a bettors’ best friend. He is low profile, has a decent winning percentage, and his horses pay well when they hit the wire first.

And that’s no accident. Vienna, who has a psychology degree from UCLA, was profiled in the DRF’s Simulcast Weekly on April 19 where I learned that he trains all of his horses on Santa Anita’s dirt training track, which is inside the turf course.

On the SA training track, the times are often slower than those on the main track and fewer horses work out for each distance. When Vienna’s inexperienced runners, or those coming off layoffs, show up at the races their published training track workouts look slow and odd.

And that’s a good thing because horseplayers not only don’t like playing unproven horses, but they like unproven ones with all slow workouts even less. That converts easily to cash for Vienna and his followers: In the Simulcast Weekly, it showed that Vienna had long-term money making statistics in 18 of 25 categories where he had 10 starters or more.

Who knew that Vienna’s psychology degree would be this useful at the horse track?

In Sunday’s second race, Vienna trained first time starter #11 Good Night Gyrene, who was ridden by Garrett Gomez. First off all, debuting horses in races for older maidens are generally very bad longterm bets. At odds of less than 20-to-1, they win only five percent of the time.

However, even though Good Night Gyrene had all slow-looking training track workouts, she must have impressed Vienna otherwise he could not have convinced Gomez to ride. Over the last 2-1/2 years, Gomez has only ridden two older maiden claimers in their debut races, according to my records.

So the only reason Gomez would be on Good Night Gyrene was because Vienna, who is also an attorney, persuaded Gomez agent Ron Anderson that the horse was going to win.

Anderson and Gomez do well with first time starters when they getting some betting action. Gomez has won with 12 of 50 debuters over the last 2-1/2 years at odds of 2/1 to 9/1 for a return of $1.43 for every $1 bet.

So in retrospect, the evidence was there for Good Night Gyrene’s win, which paid $17.80. The keys were knowing that 1.) Vienna is cagey 2.) Gomez is very selective about the debuters he climbs aboard and 3.) Gomez performs well when the first timers he’s riding are bet below 10-to-1.

So why didn’t I have it? Because I almost automatically throw out all first-time starters in races for older maidens because I save a lot of money that way. However, some trainers are so good that they can break the rules — and maybe I am starting to see that Vienna is one of those.

Instead, I played $300 to win on #1 Brilliant Response who had the lead for a while and lost a photo finish for second place.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Brilliant Response (CA) Bejarano R Gaines C 2.60 3
2 2 Itsakiss (CA) Couton J Locke T 52.20 7
4 3 Unusual Treat (CA) Baze M Ivory J 42.10 6
5 4 Hannah’s Moment (CA) Baze T Periban J 5.00 8
6 5 Raining Money (CA) Flores D Vargas J 44.30 5
7 6 Youknowwhatilike (CA) Arambula P Martinez S 8.30 9
8 7 Mom’s Gift (CA) Charlton C Montes D 119.40 11
9 8 Angel of Mystery (CA) Rosario J Marquez A 4.90 2
10 9 Warrens Stormymoon (CA) Pedroza M Gutierrez J 54.60 10
11 10 Good Night Gyrene (CA) Gomez G Vienna D 7.90 1
12 11 Lady Alex (CA) Gryder A Koriner B 2.70 4
SCR Terra Bella (CA) Navarro D Rickerd P
 
Pgm Win Place Show
11 $17.80 $7.80 $4.60
9 $7.40 $4.40
1 $3.20
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $53.80 (11-9)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $711.00 (11-9-1-12)
$1.00 Trifecta

Results, Hollywood Park Saturday Race 10 — lost $200

Jockey Martin Garcia sat behind the pace with #5 Coatcheck Girl then exploded in the stretch

Jockey Martin Garcia sat behind the pace with #5 Coatcheck Girl then exploded in the stretch

In her second lifetime race on April 4, #5 Coatcheck Girl blasted out of the gate to be just a head off the pace in a field of 13 maiden claimers. She battled the whole way and was never more than a length away from the lead until the very end when she lost by two.

That race showed Coatcheck Girl could run some, as according to my pace ratings, her April 4 race was the quickest first quarter mile of any of the runners in Saturday’s tenth.

But having the quickest first quarter, as I’ve found out by observation, doesn’t necessarily mean she would get the lead. However, it does strongly suggest that she will likely put it all together in the near future and run well for the whole race.

Usually, I will bet a horse like this at 3/1 or more, but since other angles and contenders presented themselves, I bumped her minimum acceptable odds up to 6-to-1.

And for that I paid the price, as Coatcheck Girl sat off the early pace and came storming home to win by 3-1/4 lengths while paying $11.60.

I ended up wagering $200 on #1 Bouncer, who was coming off a long layoff for trainer Gary Mandella and got some betting action. I love that type of horse too, but the problem with a 40-percent angle is that 60 percent of the time you lose.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Bouncer (KY) Talamo J Mandella G 3.90 6
2 2 Xtraordinary (TX) Baze M Mollica M 7.30 3
3 3 Where’s My Limo (CA) Sorenson D Sahadi J 55.10 10
4 4 Lion Princess (KY) Rosario J West T 3.40 4
5 5 Coatcheck Girl (KY) Garcia M Marquez A 4.80 1
6 6 Kaylie’s Joy (CA) Valdez F Dominguez C 65.20 2
7 7 Miss Reyna (KY) Valdivia, Jr. J Gonzalez S 108.30 8
8 8 Alisa’s Windstorm (CA) Gavica G Martin, Jr. F 182.90 13
9 9 Flash Dance (CA) Solis A Becerra R 6.70 9
10 10 Metallic Waters (CA) Espinoza V Baffert B 2.90 11
11 11 Roomantic (LA) Vergara O Hajek I 87.10 12
12 12 Aislebebarbie (CA) Delgadillo A Sierra C 65.70 5
13 13 Warren’s Dancer (CA) Arambula P Gutierrez J 103.10 7
 
Pgm Win Place Show
5 $11.60 $6.20 $4.80
6 $41.40 $16.60
2 $5.00
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $223.20 (5-6)
$1.00 Pick

Sunday, Hollywood Park Race 2 — 1:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $40,000, 6 furlongs, 3 yo and up, F

Possible overlays               Morning line

#1 Brilliant Response                  3/1
#5 Hannah’s Moment                  6/1
#9 Angel of Mystery                   6/1
#12 Lady Alex                           7/2

Jockey Rafael Bejarano chooses to keep the mount on #1 Brilliant Response after that one ran poorly coming off a nine-month layoff on May 23.  The filly, who is trained by Carla Gaines, has positive long-term angles going for it if betting action shows up.

Also, Gaines’ is only a 12 percent trainer this year, but she wins at 29 percent over the last two years when Bejarano rides.

Two second-time starters look good at the right price. Both #9 Angel of Mystery and #12 Lady Alex have been working out well and they ran decently in their debuts.

Finally, #5 Hannah’s Moment deserves a chance because she has the kind of good early speed that wins at 6 furlongs.

At 2/1 to 7/2, I will bet $300 on #1 Brilliant Response. If she falls out of the betting range, then I will put $150 on #5 Hannah’s Moment at 3/1 or higher, and $200 on both #9 Angel of Mystery and #12 Lady Alex at 5/2 to 7/1 only.

Saturday, Hollywood Park Race 10 — 5:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $32,000, 6 furlongs, 3 yo’s and up, F

Possible overlays             Morning line

#1 Bouncer                         5/1
#2 Xtraordinary                   6/1
#4 Lion Princess                  5/1
#5 Coatcheck Girl                9/2
#6 Kaylie’s Joy                    20/1
#9 Flash Dance                    5/1
#10 Metallic Waters            7/2

This is a very competitive race and as usual it’s important to get a good price on any of the contenders.

Making her third lifetime start, #10 Metallic Waters is trained by Bob Baffert, who drops her in class after she showed a bit of speed against maiden special weight company in the spring. On the rail, #1 Bouncer is also dropping and she’s coming off a seven-month layoff.

The median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class is 68 and #9 Flash Dance has run two of her last races within four points of that.  Other runners like #2 Xtraordinary, #4 Lion Princess and #5 Coatcheck Girl have recently run well and they can all win under the right circumstances.

At 2/1 to 7/2, I will bet $200 on #1 Bouncer.  But if Bouncer is not in that range, then instead I will play $200 on #10 Metallic Waters at 5/2 to 5/1 only.

If neither of those two horses fall into their odds zone, then I will put $200 on any of the following horses: #2 Xtraordinary at 7/1 to 12/1, #4 Lion Princess at 5/1 to 12/1, #5 Coatcheck Girl at 6/1 to 12/1 and #9 Flash Dance at 5/1 to 12/1.

Results, Hollywood Park Saturday Race 10 — lost $400

Jockey Joel Rosario on #7 Dirt Diver chased down favorite Jamison in the stretch

Jockey Joel Rosario on #7 Dirt Diver chased down favorite Jamison in the stretch

This was a two-horse race from the bell.

Trained by Howard Zucker, #6 Jamieson hadn’t run since March 2008 and was dropping from maiden special weight where he showed speed.

Breaking next door was #7 Dirt Diver who ran a winning race in his March 25 debut, then went very wide and steadied in his second race.

In this race, Jamieson, the 2-to-1 favorite, went right to the lead and was pulling on jockey Tyler Baze while holding a two-length advantage down the backstretch. Dirt Diver sat in second and seemed to be going easier for Rosario.

On the turn, Dirt Diver came within a length of Jamieson, but the favorite kicked away by two lengths at the top of the lane and appeared to be home free. But Rosario and Dirt Diver never stopped working.

Jamieson weakened a bit, and when he did, Dirt Diver went by him and got the money.

When looking at this race, I gave both Jamieson and Dirt Diver good shots to win. But I ended up with $400 on Jamieson and was only going to bet Dirt Diver if Jamieson’s odds sank below 2/1.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

© Copyright Maiden King, 2009. Written exclusively for  maidenking.wordpress.com. Not to be duplicated or reprinted.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Atlantic Victory (CA) Garcia M McAnally R 8.70 9
2 2 Fire Scout (CA) Talamo J Koriner B 9.00 5
3 3 Easy Plunder (CA) Cedeno A Capitaine N 73.20 12
4 4 Warrens Doc Mayes (CA) Arambula P Gutierrez J 88.30 10
5 5 Reiterate (CA) Martin G Rosales R 51.80 13
6 6 Jamieson (CA) Baze T Zucker H 2.00 2
7 7 Dirt Diver (CA) Rosario J Aguirre P 4.90 1
8 8 El Noche (KY) Valdivia, Jr. J Periban J 14.60 8
9 9 My Number One (KY) Scott J Wingfield R 99.40 11
10 10 Bradytomoss (NY) Gryder A Kitchingman A 13.60 7
11 11 Bonkersforbinkers (CA) Sorenson D Kasparoff J 10.80 3
12 12 Seeyainthefunnies (CA) Stra K Craigmyle K 76.50 6
13 13 Sovereign Lord (CA) Vergara O Moreno H 4.00 4
 
Pgm Win Place Show
7 $11.80 $5.20 $3.60
6 $3.60 $3.00
11 $6.00
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $18.80 (7-6)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $78.40 (1-2-7)
$1.00 Pick

Results, Hollywood Park Saturday Race 2 — lost $300

Trainer Bob Hess dropped #1 Scibelli in class to win but paid just $4.40

Trainer Bob Hess dropped #1 Scibelli in class to win but paid just $4.40

In a maiden claiming $25,000 sprint like this one, the median winning Beyer Speed Figure is a 71. And in seven of #1 Scibelli’s last 10 races he’s exceeded that speed rating.

So it was no surprise to see him win by 1-1/2 lengths, going wire-to-wire at 6-to-5.  It appears that trainer Bob Hess, Jr. grew impatient with this gelding as he ran 12 times for maiden special weight and his odds were above 4-to-1 only one time.

Throughout Scibelli’s 14-race  maiden career, where he’s now earned $88,300, he finished second six times and third on three other occasions. On Saturday, it was time for a win so Hess dropped to the bottom rung and got it.

I was prepared to bet Scibelli, but his odds were too low. So I instead went for new gelding #11 Downtown Banker at 6/1 and #7 Ask George at 7/2 — losing a total of $300 in the process.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

© Copyright Maiden King, 2009. Written exclusively for  maidenking.wordpress.com. Not to be duplicated or reprinted.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Scibelli (FL) Talamo J Hess, Jr. R 1.20 1
2 2 Astoria Renter (CA) Quinonez A Dunham D 30.50 5
3 3 Reckless Capote (KY) Baze M Periban J 13.10 4
4 4 Scofield Barracks (CA) Solis A Headley B 5.10 2
5 5 Caki (CA) Cedeno A Soto A 105.70 12
6 6 Sherry’s Reddy (CA) Scott J Aguayo V 24.90 7
7 7 Ask George (CA) Baze T Mulhall K 3.50 3
8 8 Dance to the Storm (CA) Arambula P Gutierrez J 81.70 11
9 9 Crestline (CA) Martin G Wingfield R 154.40 10
10 10 Runinfromthedeputy (CA) Delgadillo A Capitaine N 82.10 9
11 11 Downtown Banker (FL) Blanc B Chew M 6.80 6
12 12 Rio Romeo (CA) Valdez F Dominguez C 17.50 8
 
Pgm Win Place Show
1 $4.40 $3.20 $2.80
4 $5.40 $3.40
7 $3.00
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $13.50 (1-4)
$1.00 Superfecta

From a sure Hall of Famer to rode “like a bug boy.” America turns its back on Borel after he loses Belmont

Kent Desormeaux celebrates winning the Belmont Stakes aboard Summer Bird

Kent Desormeaux celebrates winning the Belmont Stakes aboard Summer Bird

What a difference a race makes.

Leading up to Saturday’s Belmont Stakes, the racing world spent five weeks genuflecting before the great Calvin Borel. Racing observers loved the way he captured the Kentucky Derby with his rail ride on 50-to-1 shot Mine That Bird, and they also admired his savvy decision to jump off the Derby champion and onto Preakness-winning filly Rachel Alexandra.

Borel’s fame skyrocketed, as trainers and analysts heaped credit on him for his outstanding Triple Crown rides. Writers called for the jockey to be inducted into the Hall of Fame and the rider entertained America with stints on the “Tonight Show” and the “Late Show with Dave Letterman.”

But fame is fleeting.

In Saturday’s Belmont Stakes, Borel made a huge move from the backstretch to the top of the lane aboard Mine That Bird. He was poised to become the first jockey ever to win all three Triple Crown races riding two different horses.

But at the quarter pole it seemed that the grueling three-race Derby-Preakness-Belmont schedule caught up with Mine That Bird. Or maybe, running the 1-1/2 mile-Belmont distance was just not this gelding’s thing.

In any event, Mine That Bird was gassed.

As Borel pleaded with the Bird to pass tiring pace setter Durkirk, anybody watching the stretch run could see that the other Bird — Summer Bird — was the only horse left with any legs. Desormeaux had Summer Bird rolling. He blew by both Dunkirk and Mine That Bird with 100 yards to go and crossed the wire 2 -3/4 lengths in front.

Right afterward, television analysts, and even trainer Chip Woolley, pointed fingers at Calvin Borel. They said he moved Mine That Bird too early and that’s why the 6-to-5 favorite lost the race.

In the New York Post, writer Ed Fountaine summed it up this way: “Did Calvin’s sudden celebrity, his guest spots on Jay Leno and David Letterman, go to his head? Renowned for his work ethic, Borel spent Belmont week sightseeing in Manhattan, not taking a single mount to get acquainted with Belmont Park, a track he had just ridden over seven times before.

“Then, after guaranteeing victory all week, he rode 6-5 favorite Mine That Bird like a bug boy. Abandoning the golden rail, he launched a premature move wide around the far turn and ran out of gas in the final furlong.”

Rode like a bug boy? Ouch. And just last week Borel was a sure Hall of Famer.

Yep, it looks like America’s short love affair with Borel is over. Put a fork in it. It’s done.

When gamblers lose big money at short odds — especially when the rider guarantees victory — they will turn on that jockey. Horseplayers can be unforgiving, and some are downright nasty. Just ask any jockey about the crude language they hear when unsaddling losing favorites at any race track in America, and they’ll tell you.

When I looked at the Belmont, Mine That Bird didn’t look much better than some of the other horses and, at 2-to-1 on the morning line, he offered absolutely no value. The 1-1/2 mile Belmont is a tricky distance because the pace is so slow and in the recent past this race has ended with many unforeseen outcomes.

I spread my bets out over four horses at good prices that appeared to have the sustained running style that would work at 1-1/2 miles. And my runners had some of the best jockey talent in the country aboard: Chocolate Candy, 9/1, Garrett Gomez; Dunkirk, 9/2, John Velazquez; Mr. Hot Stuff, 22/1, Edgar Prado; and Flying Private, 17/1, Julien Leparoux.

At 11/1, Summer Bird looked OK too. When looking at his past performances, I added a few points to the 99 Beyer Speed Figure he earned in the Kentucky Derby to account for his wide trip, but my mistake was not giving Summer Bird enough weight for his potential to improve in just his fifth start.

I think spreading out my wagers against Mine That Bird was the right thing to do. But the one problem with betting four horses in a race, is that when they all lose you need to think up nasty things to shout at four jockeys in the unsaddling area instead of only one.

And that’s the real challenge.

© Copyright Maiden King, 2009. Written exclusively for  maidenking.wordpress.com. Not to be duplicated or reprinted.

Summer Bird rallies to win The Belmont Stakes

Must be Belmont Day because Ernie’s singing again

Saturday, Hollywood Park Race 10 — 5:11 pm

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden $25,000, 6 furlongs, 3 yo’s and up

Possible overlays              Morning line

#1 Atlantic Victory                8/1
#2 Fire Scout                       9/2
#3 Reiterate                        15/1
#6 Jamieson                         7/2
#7 Dirt Diver                         6/1
#8 El Noche                          8/1

Howard Zucker trains #6 Jamieson and if he has this colt at his best off a year layoff then this race will be over very quickly. Jaimeson showed good speed in February of 2008 when he missed by a neck in a maiden claiming $40,000 contest. These days, he’s showing nothing but slow workouts, but Zucker may have intentionally kept things at a snail’s pace to keep away pari-mutuel attention on race day.

Another coming off a recent layoff is #2 Fire Scout, who showed early speed on April 29 before fading in the stretch. Trainer Brian Koriner switches jockeys to Joe Talamo, and together they have an outstanding record. In 2008-09, the Koriner-Talamo team combined for 32 wins out of 141 runners, or 23 percent. Betting all 141 runners yielded $1.24 for every $1 wagered. 

Two recently raced maidens who could hit the wire first are #1 Atlantic Victory and #7 Dirt Diver. Atlantic Victory would need to improve by only a length or two off his April 2 Beyer Speed Figure of 66 to win, while Dirt Diver’s debut might be good enough to get the job done.

Longshot possibilities include second-time starter #8 El Noche, who popped out of the gate first in a 7 furlong race on May 16 and he adds blinkers today. Also, low-profile trainer Richard Rosales saddles first timer #5 Reiterate. Rosales doesn’t win many, but when he does the tote board lights up like a Christmas tree.

I will bet $400 on #6 Jamieson at 2/1 to 7/2, but just $300 at 4/1 to 9/1. Also, I’ll take $250 on #2 Fire Scout at 2/1 to 5/1 only.

If either Jamieson or Fire Scout is bet below 2/1, then I will substitute $150 to win on #7 Dirt Diver at 7/2 or greater. Also, only if Jamieson or Fire Scout are below 2/1, I will take $50 longshot plays on #5 Reiterate and #8 El Noche at 6/1 or more.

Saturday, Hollywood Park Race 2 — 12:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $25,000, 6 furlongs, 3yo’s and up

Possible overlays                   Morning line

#1 Scibelli                                3/1
#7 Ask George                          4/1
#11 Downtown Banker                5/1

The median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this race is a 71 and #1 Scibelli has exceeded that in seven of his last 10 races.

So what is he doing in here?

This horse has earned $79,300 so far and it seems that the owners want to sell him because he was entered for $22,500 rather than $25,000.  If he wins and gets claimed, the owners would get $22,500 plus the $9,000 winner’s share of the purse, which would get them their $100,000 purchase price back, plus $10,000.

Scibelli’s morning line is 3-to-1, but with all of those high Beyer figures showing I believe the public will bet him down to at least 2-to-1. If he’s healthy, this horse will win easily, however he’s also lost nine straight races when he was bet to less than 4-to-1.

A better gamble might be #11 Downtown Banker, who dueled wide on the turn March 15 to just miss at the wire in a three-way photo finish. He only earned a 60 Beyer figure for that race, but he had a wide trip that day while today he’s running a half a furlong shorter. Also, he’s been gelded since he last started on April 9, so he just may be able to run the necessary 71 Beyer needed to win.

Another with a shot is #7 Ask George, who is running back for the second time off a long layoff. He has three good workouts and showed a hint of speed on April 9.

I will bet $200 on both #1 Scibelli and #11 Downtown Banker at 3/1 or greater. If either of those two goes off at less than 3/1, then I will instead substitute a $100 win bet on #7 Ask George at 7/2 or more.

Saturday, Belmont Stakes — 3:27 pm post time

Maiden King conquers the Belmont Stakes

Maiden King conquers the Belmont Stakes

Belmont Stakes, 1-1/2 miles, 3-year-olds

Possible overlays                            Morning line

#1 Chocolate Candy                             10/1
#2 Dunkirk                                          4/1
#3 Mr. Hot Stuff                                  15/1
#8 Flying Private                                  12/1

 The Belmont Stakes is an intriguing race because 3-year-olds are tackling a mile-and-a-half distance for the first time and almost certainly will never race this far again.

Over the years, longshots have popped that were real head-scratchers when looking at their past performances, and I think it’s because of the slow early pace.  The pace is much quicker at shorter distances than the Belmont Stakes, which leads some talented horses to tire badly in the stretch. But if the early pace is slowed to a crawl — like is often the case in the Belmont —  then some horses can sustain their runs for much longer distances. 

For example, when Commendable won the 2000 Belmont Stakes, somebody asked trainer D. Wayne Lukas how he got a sprinter to win a 12-furlong race. And Lukas said that Commendable galloped the first six furlongs, then it became a six furlong race.

Therefore, I expect the jockeys in this race to come out of the gate with their mounts in a hammerlock and their feet on the dashboard. Also, a slow pace would be disadvantageous to the 2-to-1 betting favorite Mine That Bird, who runs his best races closing from the clouds. That style works best with heated pace battles that burn out the early pace setters in the stretch.

Mine That Bird is a good horse, but I can’t take 2-to-1 at this crazy distance.

The best early speed looks like #6 Charitable Man, who won the Peter Pan while pressing the leader on May 9. However, if Dunkirk runs his best then he should be close to the front on the far turn.

Between these two, Durkirk is the better bet to win at this distance based on the sustained pace rating he earned in the Florida Derby. Two California-based horses — #1 Chocolate Candy and #3 Mr. Hot Stuff — have been running on synthetic surfaces where they have shown that they can run on if the early pace is slow enough.

Finally, D. Wayne Lukas saddles #8 Flying Private, who is improving and must be respected off is 102 Beyer Speed Figure earned in the Preakness Stakes.

At the window, I will bet $250 to win on #2 Dunkirk at 3/1 or better;  $150 on #3 Mr. Hot Stuff and $100 on Chocolate Candy, both at 6/1 or more; and $100 on #8 Flying Private at odds of at least 8/1.

Results, Hollywood Park Sunday Race 4 — lost $350

Trainer Doug O'Neill's first time starter Necessary Evil set a new track record

Trainer Doug O'Neill's first time starter Necessary Evil set a new track record

Trainer Doug O’Neill continued his 2009 success with 2-year-old first-time starters when #5 Necessary Evil established a new cushion track record in winning by 3-3/4 lengths.

O’Neill used jockey Joel Rosario in this race, which had eight first time starters of the nine runners. Necessary Evil, who was bought for $160,000, showed three quick workouts and I was prepared to wager on her at 7-to-2 or better, but she ended up as the 9-to-5 favorite.

Necessary Evil broke with the pack, then Rosario sent her to the lead. She was pursued down the backstretch and on the turn by #8 Laura’s Pleasure, ridden by Michael Baze. But that one ran out of gas at the quarter pole and nobody threathened thereafter.

I bet $200 on second-time starter #9 Win for M’lou at 9/2 and $150 on #1 Ghost Shadow at 12/1.

© Copyright Maiden King, 2009. Written exclusively for  maidenking.wordpress.com. Not to be duplicated or reprinted.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Ghost Shadow (KY) Baze T Talbot S 12.50 6
2 2 Gambling Pokerface (CA) Arambula P Coffee C 63.50 8
3 3 Magic Yodeler (CA) Solis A Harrington M 5.70 4
4 4 Rote (KY) Smith M Miller P 6.80 7
5 5 Necessary Evil (KY) Rosario J O’Neill D 1.90 1
6 6 Mi Sueno (KY) Garcia M Guillot E 3.00 2
7 7 Lena Miss (KY) Delgadillo A Stute M 49.50 9
8 8 Laura’s Pleasure (KY) Baze M Ayers R 20.30 5
9 9 Win for M’lou (KY) Valdivia, Jr. J Sherlock G 4.90 3
Pgm Win Place Show
5 $5.80 $3.80 $2.60
6 $4.40 $3.00
9 $3.20
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $8.70 (5-6)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $

Results, Hollywood Park Saturday Race 10 — lost $500

Jockey Martin Garcia teamed up with trainer Ral Ayers to win on #1 Worth the Fight

Jockey Martin Garcia teamed up with trainer Ral Ayers to win on #1 Worth the Fight

Jeff Mullins is suspended right now, so his assistant Ral Ayers is named as the trainer on all of his horses. Ayers saddled #1 Worth the Fight, who had four good workouts in her past performances.

But I could not bet her because, overall, first-time starters are a money-losing bet at this class. However, Mullins is one of those trainers — like Baffert and Mitchell — who defy the handicapping rules and win whenever they want.

I liked #6 Meat Sauce, who was coming off a long layoff, but the betting on him was luke warm. One of the risks you take when wagering on horses who have been healing up on the farm, is that whatever injury they had may prevent them from ever getting into the winner’s circle.

And in this race, Meat Sauce broke slow and pulled up on the backstretch at 5-to-1.

When Meat Sauce stopped running, I still had two other horses with a chance: second-timer #3 Atta Lora rallied nicely on the turn, but then flattened out in the lane at 6-to-1, and #14 Sure Nice showed speed until midway in the stretch then tired at 13-to-1.

Worth the Fight won by more than a length, but he steadied sharply on the backstretch, so with a better trip he could have crushed this field.
© Copyright Maiden King, 2009. Written exclusively for  maidenking.wordpress.com. Not to be duplicated or reprinted.
 
To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Worth the Fight (MD) Garcia M Ayers R 6.70 1
2 2 Galaxy Way (CA) Arambula P Shulman S 65.50 8
3 3 Atta Lora (CA) Solis A Harrington P 6.40 4
4 4 She’s a Single (CA) Sorenson D Bernstein D 27.50 11
5 5 Anundeniablyhappy (KY) Gryder A Knapp S 36.50 10
6 6 Meat Sauce (CA) Rosario J West T 5.00 14
7 7 Tripped Fuse (FL) Baze M Glatt M 21.50 13
8 8 Jacky’s Skipping (CA) Quinonez A Cenicola L 56.00 7
9 9 Stop On the Way (CA) Valdivia, Jr. J Cassidy J 39.40 12
10 10 Crafty Starlit (NY) Stra K Zucker H 17.60 6
11 11 Leslie’s Afleet (FL) Smith M Cerin V 23.20 9
12 12 Parker’s Stormgirl (CA) Talamo J Puype M 1.70 3
13 13 Call Me Dutchess (CA) Nakatani C Vienna D 15.10 2
14 14 Sure Nice (CA) Delgadillo A Dunham D 13.20 5
SCR Celena (CA) Quinonez A Pender M
SCR Miss Reyna (KY) Garcia M Gonzalez S
 
Pgm Win Place Show
1 $15.40 $10.00 $6.60
13 $13.80 $7.80
12 $3.00
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $168.40 (1-13)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $4216.60 (3-7-1)
$1.00 Pick 4 paid $13776.

Results, Hollywood Park Saturday Race 5 — won $1,540

suitcase-money_~bxp27828[1]When I looked at this race the night before, I couldn’t figure out why the morning-line maker was favoring #2 Sterling Outlook and #4 Roman Counsel over #9 Really Uptown.

In his two lifetime races, Really Uptown ran Beyer Speed Figures of 71 and 74, while Sterling Outlook earned just a 59 in his only race and second-time starter Roman Counsel got a 69 for his debut. The figures on the latter two horses would have been OK had they shown superior early speed, but Really Uptown pressed a quarter mile in 21-4/5ths seconds on May 7, while the other two sat behind a pace that was a full second slower in their debuts. Furthermore, in his May 7 race, Really Uptown broke out of the disadvantageous post postion number 6 at 4-1/2 furlongs, so he didn’t get an easy trip. 

Yet, the morning line had Sterling Outlook at 3-to-1, Roman Counsel at 5-to-2 and Really Uptown at 9-to-2. To me, something was very wrong with that picture.

During Saturday’s actual betting, the public pounded first-time starter #10 The Skinny Man down to 6-to-5 and sent Roman Counsel off as the 7-to-2 second choice. They were more realistic about Sterling Outlook’s chances, making him 5-to-1, and Really Uptown left the gate at 9-to-2.

During the running of the race, Roman Counsel shot from the stalls and quickly established a one-length lead on three horses: Sterling Outlook, #7 Southern Saint and The Skinny Man, who ran together into the turn. Meanwhile, jockey Victor Espinosa was content to sit four-lengths off the pace with Really Uptown.

But midway on the turn, Espinosa made a three-wide move with Really Uptown to get within a length of Roman Counsel who was game. He inched into that one’s lead, then Really Uptown got up in the final stride to beat his stablemate.

I bet $150 on first timers #1 Icey Temper at 13/1 and $150 on #5 Siete Machos at 19/1. Also, I had a $400 bet on Really Uptown for which I got back $2,250 resulting in a $1,550 profit.

© Copyright Maiden King, 2009. Written exclusively for  maidenking.wordpress.com. Not to be duplicated or reprinted.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Icey Temper (KY) Solis A Ayers R 13.20 6
2 2 Sterling Outlook (KY) Baze T Miller P 5.10 4
3 3 Ranger Heartley (KY) Sorenson D Hebert J 62.10 5
4 4 Roman Counsel (CA) Gryder A Harrington M 3.90 2
5 5 Siete Machos (NY) Rosario J Solis W 19.10 9
6 6 Summers At Delmar (KY) Valdivia, Jr. J La Croix D 75.00 7
7 7 Southern Saint (KY) Garcia M Guillot E 29.20 10
9 8 Really Uptown (CA) Espinoza V Harrington M 4.60 1
10 9 The Skinny Man (KY) Nakatani C O’Neill D 1.20 3
11 10 Saarface (KY) Baze M O’Neill D 53.80 8
SCR Get My Fix (KY) Talamo J Koriner B
 
Pgm Win Place Show
9 $11.20 $4.80 $3.00
4 $4.20 $2.60
10 $2.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $18.70 (9-4)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $92.10 (8-3-9)
$1.00 Superfecta

Sunday, Hollywood Park Race 4 — 2:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 5 furlongs, 2-year-old fillies

Possible overlays              Morning line

#1 Ghost Shadow                5/1
#2 Gambling Pokerface       20/1
#3 Magic Yodeler               5/1
#4 Rote                           5/1
#5 Necessary Evil              7/2
#6 Mi Sueno                     4/1
#7 Lena Miss                    20/1
#8 Laura’s Pleasure          8/1
#9 Win for M’lou                9/2

I couldn’t throw anybody out right now.

Why?

Because I think any of the horses can win this race, which has eight first-timers going out of the nine starters. The most likely winner of the debuters is #5 Necessary Evil, who is trained by Doug O’Neill. This filly has three swift workouts showing in her past performances and O’Neill won with four of his last 12 with this type of 2 year old.

The Hollywood Park morning line maker rated six of the eight first timers at odds of between 7-to-2 and 8-to-1. But I think two or three of these fillies will be greater than 10-to-1 and those are the ones that I will wager on.

The one experienced runner is #9 Win for M’lou. She showed some decent speed in her debut.

My bets will be $200 to win on #5 Necessary Evil at 7/2 or more; and $150 to win on any of these horses at 10/1 to 19/1 only: #1 Ghost Shadow, #2 Gambling Pokerface, #3 Magic Yodeler, #4 Rote, #6 Mi Sueno, #7 Lena Miss and #8 Laura’s Pleasure.

If two or fewer of the horses above fall into the betting zone, then I will also bet $200 on #9 Win for M’lou at 5/2 to 7/1 only. But if I’m able to bet three or more of the firsters, then I won’t wager on Win for M’lou at all.

© Copyright Maiden King, 2009. Written exclusively for  maidenking.wordpress.com. Not to be duplicated or reprinted.

Saturday, Hollywood Park Race 10 — 5:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $25,000, 6 furlongs, 3 yo & up, F

Possible overlays                 Morning line

#3 Atta Lora                           6/1
#6 Meat Sauce                       5/1
#12 Parker’s Stormgirl          7/2
#14 Sure Nice                        6/1
#15 Miss Reyna                      20/1

I see a few good wagering possibilities in this 16-horse field, but none is more potentially powerful than #6 Meat Sauce.

This filly is coming off an eight-month layoff, but has a couple of quick workouts for trainer Ted West. She showed some early foot in September at Fairplex and races at this 6-furlong distance are usually won by horses on or near the lead.

Another speedster coming off a long layoff is #14 Sure Nice. She was loose on the lead versus eight rivals last September and lost by 3/4 of a length. But her trainer, Daniel Dunham, hasn’t won a race all year and her jockey Agapito Delgadillo is not a marquee name either. The truth is, that if her connections were anymore low-profile they’d be in the witness protection program.

Longshot #15 Miss Reyna also hasn’t run since September and is probably a better bet to finish last than first.  But when her owner Tricar Stables wins, their horses usually pay boxcar prices.

I’m giving a shot to two second-time starters. Both #3 Atta Lora and #12 Parker’s Stormgirl could win if they run a couple of lengths faster than they did in their debuts. Mike Puype, who is the trainer of Parker’s Stormgirl, has won with 10 of his last 40 second-time starters and anybody who bet them all would have pocketed a 40 percent gain. Statistics show that Puype is also a profitable bet in maiden claiming races and when using jockey Joe Talamo.

In the end, I will put $400 to win on #6 Meat Sauce but only at odds of 2/1 to 7/2. Also, I’ll take $150 to win on #12 Parker’s Stormgirl at 5/2 to 7/1, but if she doesn’t fall into the range then I’ll replace her with $150 to win on #3 Atta Lora at 5/2 to 7/1. Also, I want $100 on #14 Sure Nice at 5/1 and up and $50 on #15 Miss Reyna at any price.

If #6 Meat Sauce goes off at 4/1 or more than I’ll reduce my bet on her to $250 while keeping everything else intact.

© Copyright Maiden King, 2009. Written exclusively for  maidenking.wordpress.com. Not to be duplicated or reprinted.

Saturday, Hollywood Park Race 5 — 3 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 5 furlongs, 2-year-olds

Possible overlays                Morning line

#1 Icy Temper                      15/1
#3 Ranger Heartley                20/1
#5 Siete Machos                   15/1
#6 Summers at Del Mar          20/1
#8 Get My Fix                       6/1
#9 Really Uptown                  9/2
#10 The Skinny Man              5/1
#11 Saarface                       20/1

Seven first-time starters go in this race and I listed them all above as possible overlays, but realistically only a few of them will go off at a price fit for betting.

The best of the debuters looks like #10 The Skinny Man. J Paul Reddam, the owner, loves to use Corey Nakatani and his horses have had success in their first lifetime races. Furthermore, trainer Doug O’Neill has good numbers with this type of horse.

Of the experienced horses, I like #9 Really Uptown. The median Beyer Speed Figure for this class is 76 and Really Uptown ran a 74 in his last start while breaking from the unfavorable #6 post at 4-1/2 furlongs. The morning-line maker has #4 Roman Counsel and #2 Sterling Outlook at lower prices than Really Uptown, who not only has better Beyers but looks to be much quicker from the gate. If Really Uptown is a higher price than these two, I will bet him with both hands.

At the window, I will put $150 to win on any of these debuters at 10/1 to 19/1 only:  #1 Icey Temper, #3 Ranger Heartley, #5 Siete Machos, #6 Summers At Delmar, #8 Get My Fix and #11 Saarface. Also, I want $300 to win on #10 The Skinny Man at 7/2 or better and $400 to win on #9 Really Uptown at 3/1 or more.

© Copyright Maiden King, 2009. Written exclusively for  maidenking.wordpress.com. Not to be duplicated or reprinted.

Results, Hollywood Park Monday Race 10 — lost $450

Trainer Bob Baffert closed out Memorial Day by winning with #8 Only Be Cause

Trainer Bob Baffert closed out Memorial Day by winning with #8 Only Be Cause

Second-time starter #12 Bango popped out of the gate and led for most of the race by open lengths. This 9/2 shot, who is trained by Jorge Periban, had a two-length lead in midstretch, but he quit badly as #8 Only Be Cause inherited the front and put trainer Bob Baffert back in the winner’s circle.

Only Be Cause was making his eleventh lifetime start, however only three of them came at maiden claiming $32,000. I had him rated about the same as #7 Domestic Gold, who did not fire at 7/2.

In his previous five races, Only Be Cause never went off at odds higher than 3-to-1, and this race was no different as he was the 2-to-1 favorite. On social networking site Twitter, poster @larryzapeye was at Hollywood Park and minutes before the race he provided his reasoning for betting Only Be Cause:  “Baffert is still here and horse looks healthy.”

During the race, jockey Victor Espinoza sat Only Be Cause about four lengths off Bango’s lead. Espinoza asked for more in the stretch and, with the wire approaching, it looked like the son of Giant’s Causeway would lose for the 11th straight time. But Bango could not last and Only Be Cause ran onto victory.

I wagered $200 on #7 Domestic Gold, $150 on #12 Bango and $100 on #13 Candy Coat.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

© Copyright Maiden King, 2009. Written exclusively for  maidenking.wordpress.com. Not to be duplicated or reprinted.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
2 1 Classical Bartok (CA) Delgadillo A Papaprodromou G 41.40 8
4 2 Decarchy Fever (CA) Quinonez A Sticka R 37.50 7
7 3 Domestic Gold (MD) Sorenson D Gallagher P 3.60 6
8 4 Only Be Cause (KY) Espinoza V Baffert B 2.40 1
9 5 Truly a Delight (CA) Baze M Bernstein D 5.90 4
11 6 Richardminichiello (CA) Valdez F Truman E 45.00 9
12 7 Bango (KY) Valdivia, Jr. J Periban J 4.90 3
13 8 Candy Coat (KY) Stra K Sise, Jr. C 7.00 5
14 9 Box Office Star (KY) Bejarano R Yakteen T 4.80 2
SCR Fire Scout (CA)    
SCR Benjamin Z (KY) Baze T Mitchell M
SCR Sovereign Lord (CA)    
SCR Boomtown (KY)    
SCR Downtown Banker (FL)    
 
Pgm Win Place Show
8 $6.80 $3.60 $2.40
14 $5.20 $4.60
12 $4.20
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $20.70 (8-14)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $